Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Marner Produces in Sin City

Mitch Marner's production has been one of the key beneficiaries of a red-hot Auston Matthews and with the Leafs getting another favorable matchup in Vegas, it's safe to assume it continues tonight. Read more in our NHL picks below.

Feb 22, 2024 • 12:58 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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We’ve got 11 games on tonight's NHL betting slate, including a cross-conference clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Vegas Golden Knights.

Morgan Rielly’s suspension is over, but how will his integration back into the lineup impact tonight’s results?

The NHL odds suggest the Golden Knights should win with the Buds on a back-to-back, but there could be some fight in this team with a few red-hot offensive weapons looking to continue some impressive scoring streaks.

Find out why in my free NHL picks for this February 22 matchup.

Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights odds

Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Vegas Golden Knights get set for their first tilt of the season.

The Buds have ripped off five wins in a row in the wake of the Morgan Rielly suspension, but he returns to the lineup tonight in hopes he doesn’t disrupt the flow of the suddenly newfound two-way edgy game the Leafs have played with while he’s been out. 

Toronto’s five-game winning streak has come with a +16 goal differential in that stretch, with a major emphasis on the success of Auston Matthews and a red-hot power play. Toronto is averaging 5.2 goals per game over this stretch, with a 45% success rate on the power play.

However, also quietly piling up points along the way has been Mitch Marner, who is +175 to record Over 1.5 points in tonight’s game against the Golden Knights. He's quietly on an eight-game point streak, going Over 1.5 points in five straight outings. I say he does it again tonight in Vegas. 

Historically, Marner has fared well in Vegas with 10 points in eight career games against them, with three of the last five being multi-point efforts.

Yes, Marner is benefiting from a red-hot Auston Matthews — who has nine goals in his last five games — and a dominant power play, which has converted 14 times in its last nine outings (56%). With Vegas suffering injuries to Mark Stone and Jack Eichel, I don't see those weapons drying up tonight. 

Also, consider tailing this play with a sprinkle on his power-play point prop at +210 as well. He’s recorded at least one point on the man advantage in four straight games.

My best bet: Mitch Marner Over 1.5 points (+175 at SIA)

Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights same-game parlay

Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer

Leafs team total Over 2.5

Alternate total Over 4.5

We’ll mirror my Marner points bet with an anytime goal from his right-hand man. The man is on fire with nine goals in his last five games and is seemingly a shoo-in to score at least one a night. He’s cashed on an anytime goal prop in 11 of his last 13 games and enters tonight with eight goals in nine career outings against Vegas. 

Next up, let’s continue to ride the hot hands of the Leafs' offense and take the Leafs to go Over their team total of 2.5 goals. It’s a value play as the Leafs are underdogs tonight in Vegas, but with big injuries to key players in Vegas, I think the Buds can make some noise in the offensive end and score 3+ goals for an eighth straight game. Plus, Vegas has given up 3+ in three of its last four outings.

Let’s also go Over on the alternate total of 4.5 goals. We already need the Leafs to score three, I think it’s fair to assume another two goals get scored within the game. Toronto is on the second night of a back-to-back and will have Martin Jones in net. He’s allowed 3+ goals in six of his last seven appearances.

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Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Maple Leafs come into tonight's affair as +100 road dogs, with the Golden Knights entering as -120 home favorites.

Martin Jones is what worries me about backing the Leafs tonight. Also, the unknown impact of Rielly’s return tonight after a five-game hiatus where the team went 5-0 with a +16 goal differential without him, not to mention the 57% power-play clip. For those factors alone, I won't be placing a wager on the moneyline in this game. 

The total for tonight’s game is set at 6 goals, shading toward the Over at -115 with the Under is at -105. I think we could see a rather high-scoring game tonight from both sides; both Toronto and Vegas average more than 3.0 goals per game offensively. 

Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights betting trend to know

The Maple Leafs have cashed the first-period moneyline in 27 of their last 48 away games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights.

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Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights game info

Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Date: Thursday, February 22, 2024
Puck drop: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: SCRIPPS, TSN4

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