Toronto Maple Leafs forward Matthew Knies has more goals against the Tampa Bay Lightning than any other team in his career.
As a result, his anytime goal value is just too good to pass up with tonight's Lightning vs. Maple Leafs predictions.
I break the matchup down further with my free NHL picks for this Monday, December 8 matchup.
Lightning vs Maple Leafs prediction
Lightning vs Maple Leafs Best bet: Matthew Knies anytime goal (+225)
Death, taxes, and Matthew Knies scoring on the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Toronto Maple Leafs forward has scored 10 goals in just nine career games against Tampa, scoring in four straight against the Bolts, totaling seven in that span, including a hat trick last season.
The Leafs have played much better hockey lately, winning three of their last four games. In that stretch, Knies is second on the team with a 59.56 xGF% at 5-on-5. He’s also been on the ice for 18 high-danger chances, many of which were created by Knies himself.
Additionally, the Lightning are extremely shorthanded tonight, as star goaltender Andre Vasilevskiy was placed on IR and won’t suit up.
The Lightning are rolling with Jonas Johansson, who sports an .896 SV% this season, and has even worse career numbers against Toronto.
He’s 0-2-2 with a 4.68 GAA and a career .869 SV% against the Buds
In addition to Vasilevskiy being out, so are Tampa's two top defenders, Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak.
The Leafs will generate some offense tonight, and Knies typically finds the back of the net in this Atlantic Division rivalry.
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Lightning vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay
I’ll continue to bet on offense for the Leafs to go Over 2.5 goals. They’ve eclipsed this number in three of their last four and have scored 23 times against Johansson in just four appearances.
John Tavares has 83 SOG this year and has gone over tonight’s posted total nine times in his last 11.
Lightning vs Maple Leafs SGP
- Matthew Knies anytime goal
- Maple Leafs team total Over 2.5
- John Tavares Over 2.5 shots on goal
Lightning vs Maple Leafs odds
- Moneyline: Lightning -130 | Maple Leafs +110
- Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+185) | Maple Leafs +1.5 (-225)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-115) | Under 6.5 (-105)
Lightning vs Maple Leafs trend
The Maple Leafs are 7-3 on the moneyline over the last 10 meetings between the two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.
How to watch Lightning vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Monday, December 7, 2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime |
Lightning vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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