We’ve got 14 games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including a marquee matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Carolina Hurricanes.
The NHL Odds suggest that Carolina should win tonight’s game, but you never know what you’re going to get when the Canes and Leafs tango in Toronto. Therefore, I’m more intrigued by the value available in the shot prop market for this game. Find out why in my free NHL picks for this March 16 matchup.
Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs odds
Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes have historically given fans their money’s worth over the years with wacky finishes and high-scoring games.
However, the earlier matchup between these teams was much tamer than usual, as Carolina came out victorious with a tidy 3-2 win in Toronto. I think it’s fair to say we could expect a similar outcome tonight at Scotiabank Arena, especially with the absence of Mitch Marner and Calle Jarnkrok for Toronto.
Despite Marner’s absence, the Leafs have won both games he’s missed and have won seven of their last 10 overall. As for the Hurricanes, they’ve won four of their last five and six of their last nine games, including an impressive 4-0 drubbing of the East-leading Florida Panthers.
Carolina recorded 35 shots in that game over the Cats, and they have averaged 32.9 shots per game over the aforementioned nine-game stretch. Leading the way in that department has been Czech winger Martin Necas, who has a team-high 177 shots on goal this season, with 34 of them coming in the last nine games. That’s an average of 3.77 shots per game.
Necas’ shot prop total is where the value lies tonight. Necas’ shot prop is set at 2.5 and is paying -120. Which is a pretty solid price considering he’s fired an average of 3.7 shots on net in his last nine games, while going Over the total of 2.5 shots in 10 of his last 11 outings.
As for the Maple Leafs, they’ve been a middle-of-the pack team when it comes to limiting shot volume. The Buds are giving up 30.31 shots per game on home ice this year, which ranks 23rd in the NHL. Not to mention the fact that the Canes have averaged 34.7 shots on net per game over their last 10 meetings against Toronto with Rob Brind’Amour behind the bench. So there should be ample opportunity for Necas to rip three or more pucks on goal to hit the Over for us.
My best bet: Martin Necas Over 2.5 shots (-120 at SIA)
Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay
Hurricanes first to score
Hurricanes moneyline
Under 3.5 goals
Let’s take the Hurricanes to win the game on the moneyline. They’re the healthier team and just a flat-out better group overall. The Canes are 40-26 on the moneyline this year and have won the last two games against Toronto. The injuries to Marner and Jarnkrok play a big factor here too, as they not only provide offense, but have also been strong penalty killers for Toronto.
Next up, I like the Canes to score the first goal of the game. Carolina has scored first in 56% of their games this year. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs have surrendered the first goal in 15 of their 32 home games.
For my final leg, let’s take the Under on the Leafs alternate team Total of 3.5 goals. Goals will be hard to come by for Toronto in this one. Plus, the Leafs have been held to three or less in four of their last five games as they transition into a team that focuses on playing with strong defensive structure.
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Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Leafs come into tonight as the home underdog at -105, with the Hurricanes favored at -115 on the road. The injuries to Toronto and their struggles on home ice give Carolina the edge. The Buds are just 18-14 on home ice, which is the worst record among all Eastern Conference playoff teams. The Canes have a pretty strong record on the road too, with a .613 win percentage.
The total for tonight’s game is set at 6.0 goals, shaded toward the Over at -120 and the Under at even money (+100) odds. Both teams are a combined 6-13-1 to the Over in their last 10 games. I’d recommend possibly buying half a goal and grabbing the Under at 6.5 at -130 odds.
Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Leafs have gone Under their third period total in five of their last six games. Find more NHL betting trends for Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs.
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Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, March 16, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports South, Sportsnet |
Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
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