The playoff action continues to chug along with a quintet of must-win contests on the ice Thursday, May 1, and my top parlay NHL picks span all four games.
It all starts with the Maple Leafs looking to snap a two-game losing skid to advance to Round 2, and the nightcap features the Oilers a win away from topping the Kings in the opening round for a fourth consecutive year.
Today's best NHL Playoffs parlay: May 1
Maple Leafs moneyline
Stars-Avalanche Under 6.5
Kings-Oilers Under 6.5
Pick #1: Maple Leafs moneyline
The Toronto Maple Leafs limited the Ottawa Senators to 15 shots, five high-danger scoring chances, and 1.21 expected goals at 5-on-5 in Game 5, which is a winning formula most nights. It wasn’t on Tuesday.
Ottawa goalie Linus Ullmark finished with 3.07 goals saved above expected, and the Sens were able to keep the Toronto power play in check and score a short-handed goal.
While there’s a lot to say about building momentum in a series, the Maple Leafs won Game 3 at the Canadian Tire Centre and went 25-13-3 on the road during the regular season. This series wraps up on Thursday.
Pick #2: Stars-Avalanche Under 6.5
Game 5 got away from the Colorado Avalanche, and No. 1 goalie Mackenzie Blackwood had his worst start of the series. Still, his 5.01 goals saved above expected ranks third this postseason, and there have been six goals or fewer in three of the five games in Round 1.
Colorado also limited the Dallas Stars to just two goals and 5.34 expected goals in Games 3 and 4, including only a single tally and 2.96 xGF at 5-on-5. The Avalanche also caved the Stars in with a 63.1 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5.
Additionally, Blackwood sports an elite .925 SV% and 1.88 GAA at Ball Arena since joining the Avs in mid-December.
Pick #3: Kings-Oilers Under 6.5
The scoring finally cooled in Game 5 between the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers. Both trended to the Under throughout the regular season, and both Kings No. 1 Darcy Kuemper and Oil starter Calvin Pickard have settled in.
Kuemper has a .935 SV% with 6.45 goals saved above expected in the past two games, and Pickard has respective .937 and 1.41 marks.
Additionally, the Kings allowed the second-fewest goals per game (2.48) and fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 during the regular season, and the Oilers were above average with 2.87 allowed per game and the ninth-fewest xGA/60.
Maple Leafs-Senators Under 5.5
Golden Knights-Wild Under 5.5
Avalanche moneyline
Pick #1: Maple Leafs-Senators Under 5.5
The Under has hit in three of the first five Round 1 games between the Maple Leafs and Senators, and three of the past four following an outlier series opener. Of even more importance, the low-scoring results align with the lack of quality 5-on-5 scoring chances.
Ottawa ranks 13th with just 2.01 expected goals per 60 minutes, while Toronto is 15th at a 1.90 mark. The two clubs have scored 16 goals and generated 17.57 xGF at 5-on-5 through five games.
Goaltending has also played a big part, and in particular, Ottawa No. 1 Linus Ullmark’s improved play as the series has progressed. He’s posted a .927 SV% with 3.04 goals saved above expected across the past three games.
Pick #2: Golden Knights-Wild Under 5.5
The Minnesota Wild allowed the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 on home ice during the regular season, and the total went Under the number for the first time in Game 5. Goaltending is the key for Minny, and Filip Gustavsson is expected to start Game 6 after exiting Tuesday’s tilt following the second period with an illness.
Gustavsson has been up to the task with a .919 SV% and 2.18 goals saved above expected, and I’m expecting more from Vegas Golden Knights starter Adin Hill.
Hill’s .865 SV% and 3.00 GAA are nowhere close to his respectable .906 and 2.47 regular-season marks, and the Golden Knights also played tighter defense with the third-fewest goals against per game (2.61).
Pick #3: Avalanche moneyline
The Avalanche won Game 4 handily on home ice, and I’m expecting Game 6 to play out similarly. Colorado got behind early and was never able to fully climb back in on Monday, and No. 1 Mackenzie Blackwood wasn’t at his best. Look for the script to flip on Thursday.
Colorado has dominated the underlying numbers at 5-on-5 all series, with a 58.4 Corsi For percentage and 57.4 expected goals percentage. As noted, Blackwood has been excellent on home ice since joining the Avalanche with a 15-5-2 record dating back to the trade.
This has also been a true back-and-forth series, and I’m anticipating the Stars hosting Game 7 on Saturday.
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