Flames vs Stars Game 3 Picks and Predictions: Dallas Snuffs Calgary Attack in Game 3

Calgary and Dallas have battled to a defense-first grind through two games, and we're not expecting much of a change heading into Game 3. Find out which side can take advantage of the slog with our Flames vs. Stars picks.

Last Updated: May 7, 2022 2:44 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Dallas Stars upset the Calgary Flames in Game 2 as +210 underdogs with a 2-0 shutout win and now the low-scoring series moves to Texas with things knotted up at one game apiece. 

Can the Flames regroup and steal their first road game of the series as -165 road favorites despite scoring just a single goal through two games? Can Jake Oettinger continue to be solid even with a light workload? Find out in free NHL picks and predictions for Flames vs. Stars on Saturday, May 7.

Flames vs Stars odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Flames opened as -165 road favorites and haven’t seen much movement at all. With just three goals scored over the series’ first two games, the total has moved from 5.5 to 5. Calgary closed as a -235 home favorite in Game 2’s 2-0 loss. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Flames vs Stars predictions

Predictions made on 5/07/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Flames vs Stars game info

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Date: Saturday, May 7, 2022
Puck drop: 9:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT, Sportsnet

Flames vs Stars series odds (tied at 1-1)

Flames: -290
Stars: +235

Flames vs Stars betting preview

Key injuries

Flames: Sean Monahan F (Out).
Stars: Braden Holtby G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Flames vs Stars head-to-head record since 2019-20

Flames: 7-7 SU, 38 goals for.
Stars: 7-7 SU, 38 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0 in the Flames’ last six when their opponent allows two goals or fewer in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Stars.

Flames vs Stars picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

It's been nearly 115 minutes since the Calgary Flames scored a goal as Jake Oettinger shut the door in Game 2 and the Flames won 1-0 in Game 1 after scoring in the game’s first five minutes. This series has been a battle and there has not been much open ice. It also shouldn’t surprise many that two teams who are heavily reliant on their top line to score are struggling to hit the scoresheet in the postseason.

Despite the Flames finishing with the second-best record in the West and being heavy favorites entering the series, this has been a tight series so far. Only two non-empty-net goals have been scored — one on a power play and one at even strength — while the Flames have the slightest edge in expected goals at 4.06 to Dallas’ 3.84 xgoals. 

Calgary has had more quality scoring chances and has controlled possession with a Corsi% and a Fenwick% sitting above 60%, but Darryl Sutter's team has done next to nothing with its limited offensive chances and now takes its stick-squeezing ways on the road to Dallas, where the Stars finished in the Top 10 in GAA at 2.76. 

The Flames had plenty of success on the road this season and finished with the second-best point percentage on the road with a 25-12-4 record and a plus-0.69 goal differential per game. However, beating Dallas at home has not been easy this year, as it finished with a 27-10-4 record at home this season. 

The main reason for Dallas’ success at home has been the brilliant play of Oettinger, who posted a 21-6 SU mark at home this season. His splits were actually better on the road, but the Stars just found ways to win games at home this season and with the Flames struggling to find the back of the net, +145 might be worth the price of admission.

Calgary closed as a -235 home favorite in Game 2 and we’re starting to see the market adjust to this line, as the Flames are beginning to move to the shorter side. This is giving us a great price on the home side at +145 in a series where neither offense has dominated. 

We wouldn’t be surprised if Dallas split its two home games and stealing Game 3 might be the best chance to take a game. 

We loved Calgary and Sutter to shut down the Dallas offense in Game 2, but the offense forgot to do its part, and with so much reliance on the Tkachuk-Lindholm-Gaudreau line and now losing the last change, the Stars have a slight advantage. In a series that has been this tight, these are the small factors that have us chasing plus money.

PredictionDallas moneyline (+145 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

Thanks to the lack of offensive production in the series’ first two games, we’re seeing the first 5 total of the playoffs, and we don’t blame the books for the minuscule number that has been reserved for the New York Islanders in recent playoffs. 

No team has scored more than one goal without an empty net, only 7.9 xgoals have been credited, while 5-on-5 play has recorded just a single goal and just over 4.00 xgoals. Calgary scored zero goals at even strength in the first two games of the series while at home, which is concerning for them.

Jacob Markstrom recorded the shutout in Game 1 while Oettinger returned the favor on Thursday. Combined, the two goaltenders have stopped 91 of 93 shots, which is good for a remarkable 0.978 SV%. If you’re doing the math, that’s an average of just 23 shots per game from each team per game. If you’re looking to fade the offenses and hit the goalie Under saves props, you’re going to have to get real low, as Markstrom’s total currently sits at 24.5 and leaning to the Under. Oettinger’s is at 27.5 after Calgary got 26 and 29 shots respectively in the series’ first two games. 

Penalties are up substantially across the playoffs, but neither team has capitalized on their opportunities. Calgary is 1-for-8 and 0-for-7 across their last seven power plays while the Stars are 0-for-7. Both teams finished in the top half of the league in PK% over the final two months of the season and have been aggressive so far in the playoffs, which has been paying off. 

After two games, we have a very good understanding of each team’s coaching strategies in the series which is simple: eliminate the opposing offensive chances. The books are well aware of this with the total at 5, but there are some 5.5s out there that we can hit the Under on, as we’re expecting another low-scoring, zero open-ice game that should be settled by a single goal. 

PredictionUnder 5.5 (-130 at BetMGM)

Best bet

We've seen what a hot goaltender can do in the playoffs and how it can get into the heads of the opposing offense. Calgary is still a big favorite to capture the series at -290, but Dallas isn’t going away and might actually be a tougher opponent than many thought heading into the series. 

Calgary struggled to get any offense going at home and has been held off the scoresheet for 115 minutes, which is tough to overlook, especially when we’re getting +145 for the Stars at home where they have been a better hockey team.

Oettinger might be young at 23-years old, but this is a former first-round pick with pedigree. The spotlight isn't too big for him.

At 28-6 SU, the Stars were the second-best team in hockey at winning one-goal games during the regular season and they’ll need to dig into that same bag of tricks to take the series lead tonight. With Calgary's struggles on offense, we like Dallas to win this game more than 40% of the time, which the line is indicating.

PickDallas moneyline (+145) 

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