Connor McDavid has been a point-producing machine for the Edmonton Oilers in these playoffs, recording 20 through 13 games. That’s actually a higher per game average than he posted in the regular season.
He is stuffing the scoresheet seemingly every night, and that should again be the case in Game 3 against Dallas.
Let’s take a look at my favorite way to target McDavid with my NHL picks for Stars vs. Oilers on May 25.
Connor McDavid player prop picks
- Best bet
Connor McDavid anytime goal
(+140) - SGP pick
Connor McDavid anytime goal
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 0.5 assists
Oilers moneyline
(+405)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Connor McDavid best bet
Connor McDavid anytime goal (+140 at BET99)
Connor McDavid scored 26 goals over 53 playoff games the three postseason runs prior to this year. That equates to 40.22 goals per 82 games, an elite level of production.
McDavid hasn’t come close to that efficiency this year, scoring just three times through 13 games. That averages out to be 18.92 goals per 82 games — less than half the rate we’ve come accustomed to seeing from McDavid this time of year.
While it could be argued McDavid’s dip in scoring has to do with facing such great defensive teams — Los Angeles, Vegas, and Dallas were all Top-6 in goals against during the regular season — he’s had no issue creating opportunities, suggesting that’s not a problem.
McDavid ranked second in scoring chances, and expected goals, over the first two rounds of the playoffs. He’s started this one with more shots on goal than anybody through two games.
Point being, he’s getting a ton of chances. In fact, McDavid is generating more shots — and expected goals — per 60 minutes than he ever has in the playoffs. His reward thus far is the lowest scoring efficiency.
Unless there is a mystery injury so limiting that the best player in the league will continue scoring playoff goals at the lowest rate of his career, despite generating the most chances, then the tide should turn sooner rather than later.
Priced generously back on home soil, this appears a good spot to jump on board.
Connor McDavid same-game parlay
Connor McDavid anytime goal
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 0.5 assists
Oilers moneyline
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is playing his best hockey of the season. He has piled up 13 points over his last 11 games, eight of which have come by assist.
Nugent-Hopkins has earned himself a spot on McDavid’s line at 5-on-5 as well as on the No. 1 power play unit. They are sharing the ice nearly every shift, giving RNH a great chance to get involved if and when McDavid finds the back of the net.
With last change now in Kris Knoblauch’s hands, he should also be able to get his top line more shifts away from Miro Heiskanen and Dallas’ go-to defensive personnel.
Lastly, I like the Oilers to take care of business back on home soil. They have played excellent hockey in their own barn during these playoffs, winning four of five games while out scoring opponents 23-15.
They’ve also posted a +22 high-danger chance differential and controlled 60.23% of the expected goal share, best of the four teams still playing.
If Stuart Skinner can hold his own between the pipes, the Oilers will have a great chance of winning this game.
Bet on the NHL at BET99!
One of Canada's best sportsbooks for hockey betting, join BET99 and get up to $1,500 bonus bets back if your first bet doesn’t win when using our BET99 promo code COVERSBONUS!
*Not available in Ontario. 19+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
