The Montreal Canadiens are coming off a big win over the Maple Leafs Saturday night but don’t be mistaken: this is a team that’s in full tank mode and takes on the best team in hockey tonight in the Boston Bruins.
Boston sits as -370 road favorites, but with the injuries to the Habs and the scheduled spot, this could be my highest probable winning game this season. The B's should be an 85% favorite (-567) in this spot.
Find out my best bet for the Bruins vs. Canadiens in my NHL betting picks and predictions.
Bruins vs Canadiens best odds
Bruins vs Canadiens picks and predictions
The Boston Bruins deserve to be -370 favorites tonight and I think that number can still get shorter.
The Montreal Canadiens need to lose to get into the draft lottery for Connor Bedard. They just shut down Cole Caufield and are running out of skill in their top six. Heading into tonight, Juraj Slafkovsky, Brendan Gallagher, Jake Evans, Sean Monahan, Jonathan Drouin, Joel Armia, and Paul Byron are all out.
Boston will be playing with the lead early and with the penalty issues Montreal is dealing with, the Habs could be playing shorthanded often tonight. Since the Christmas break, no team is taking more penalties. Making things worse, they have the 31st-ranked penalty kill over that stretch.
Boston tightens things up when playing with the lead, and Montreal could struggle to net two goals tonight because of it.
The visitors have allowed just two goals over their last four games and have held their opponents to two or fewer goals eight times over 10 contests. The Bruins are a perfect 22-0 SU when leading after the first period and have given up just 64 goals in the second and third periods this season across 46 games.
Whether it’s Linus Ullmark (Vezina odds frontrunner) or Jeremy Swayman (.967 SV% last five games), the Canadiens offense is going to be blanketed tonight in what will be the first game of a five-game road trip for the visitors who will want to start the trip on a dominating note.
Montreal won its big game Saturday vs. the Maple Leafs and this has a letdown spot written all over it. I have Montreal to score at least two goals closer to 50/50 in this spot but the best price on the board is +155 at bet365 while Pinnacle has Under 2.5 goals at -162.
I'm taking the juice and Under 2.5 but bettors who can't get that number should still feel confident with the Under 1.5 at +135 or better.
My best bet: Canadiens team total Under 2.5 (-162 at Pinnacle)
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Bruins vs Canadiens moneyline analysis
The Bruins are the best team in hockey. There is no debate. They’re as well-rounded as a team can be, have just five losses through 46 games, and have the betting favorite for the Vezina (Linus Ullmark) and Jack Adams (Jim Montgomery).
They also lead the league in goal differential, have a Top 3 power play, and have the league’s best penalty kill. There are currently no holes in this team’s game and they come in nearly at 100% with only Jake DeBrusk on the shelf.
The same can’t be said for their opponents tonight. This is now a team that is running a top line of Nick Suzuki, Josh Anderson, and Rem Pitlick. After that, it's even uglier.
Now this barren offense, which currently ranks 30th in goals per game, has to face the best defensive team that has a league-best 2.02 GAA on the season (2.25 GAA on the road). It’s a terrible matchup vs. a Boston team that is coming off a Sunday shutout of the Sharks and has allowed just two goals over its last four games.
I don’t love using trends when it comes to head-to-head matchups, but these two divisional opponents see each other often and the B's have won nine of the last 10 games in Montreal and seven straight meetings dating back to November 2019.
Boston opened at -330 and has moved substantially to -370 by this morning. There is still room for this price to shorten up. The shortest the Bruins have been on the road this season was back in early December vs. the Coyotes where it closed at -344.
It’s not often we see road favorites of -400, but I think the price is warranted. This moneyline could close at -395 and might get some buyback at -400 as that is a price break for many bettors. I wouldn’t bet on the Habs even at +350.
Bruins vs Canadiens Over/Under analysis
Both teams come into tonight’s meeting 7-11-2 O/U across their last 10 games. There are a few ways bettors can approach this game in terms of betting an Over/Under.
First, is the Boston team total Over. It’s not cheap as the Over 3.5 is -165 and bettors might have to hit the Over 4.5 at +155 to avoid the tax. That could be an issue if Sam Montembeault starts for Montreal.
Jake Allen is day-to-day but practiced Monday, but in his absence, Montembeault has a .934 SV% across seven games. Those numbers are unsustainable for a goalie with a career .897 SV%, but it’s tough to ignore how well he’s seeing the puck.
The Bruins also have a knack for sitting on leads. They’re 9-1 SU in their last 10 but have scored more than four goals just three times. This has me leaning on the full-game Under 6.0 more.
Montreal will struggle to score two goals tonight. This is an offense that sits in the Bottom 3 in goal per game at 2.57 per game and has the worst power play in hockey at 15%. Facing the No. 1 penalty kill with a shorthanded roster void of goalscorers is a bad matchup.
Montembeault is the difference here and should give Under 6.0 bettors a little more confidence. Montreal Under 1.5 +155 is also in play here.
Bruins vs Canadiens betting trend to know
The Bruins are 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Montreal. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs Canadiens.
Bruins vs Canadiens game info
|Location:||Bell Center, Montreal, QC|
|Date:||Tuesday, January 24, 2023|
|Puck drop:||7:00 p.m. ET|