Week 4 NFL Parlay Picks: Cook Turns up Heat on Fins Defense

As we prepare to leave September and the first three weeks of the NFL season behind, it's a good time to take stock of what we've seen this year and weigh it more heavily against what our preconceived notions were going into the campaign. Which teams or players have exceeded expectations, which are playing below them, and which are just about at par as we near the 25% mark of the schedule?

I believe it's time to start taking the Browns defense seriously, and that will factor into my first NFL odds parlay play of the weekend. I've also seen enough of Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay to start making some conclusions there too. 

In my second parlay, I'll focus on what could be the most exciting game of the Sunday slate in Dolphins vs. Bills. 

Join me as I dish out my free NFL picks and predictions for Week 4.

Week 4 NFL parlay picks

• BAL/CLE u40.5 + TB/NO u40.5 = +264
• MIA/BUF o26.5 (1H) + Cook o56.5 rush yds + Diggs 60+ rec yds = +330

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best Week 4 parlay pick

Ravens vs. Browns Under 40.5

Buccaneers vs. Saints Under 40.5

+264 at BetMGM

The Ravens and Browns have played some highly competitive games over the last two years, but none of them could be described as track meets. 

Three of the last four Baltimore-Cleveland battles have gone below the number, with the average total coming out to 32.8 points. And the Browns' defense has dramatically improved over just one offseason to become a nightmare for opposing teams.

Jim Schwartz has worked some magic to make Cleveland's stoppers No. 1 in just about every meaningful category through three weeks. While it will be nearly impossible for the Browns to avoid regressing after allowing just 163.7 yards per game, I'm not counting on the Ravens to break through in a meaningful way here. 

Lamar Jackson & Co. authored a season-low 19 points in an OT loss vs. the Colts last week, and their last few drives were painful to watch.

Meanwhile, Baltimore's defense looks much improved (10th in yards allowed per game), and I'm not buying Deshaun Watson's miraculous turnaround vs. the Titans on the heels of a wretched body of work with the Browns. Watson could spend plenty of time looking up at the sky after being dropped 12 times through three games (fourth-worst in the NFL), as the Ravens are fifth in sacks this season (11).

While that AFC North slog transpires, an NFC South rock fight will occur in New Orleans as the Saints host the Buccaneers.

Five of the last six Bucs-Saints tilts have gone Under with an average total of 36 points, and that was with Tom Brady calling the shots in Tampa. Now it's Baker Mayfield under center, and he's thrown for 5.8 yards per attempt in two of his first three games. He threw for 9.3 yards per attempt in Week 2... against the abysmal Chicago Bears.

As for the Saints, they'll be quarterbacked by either a hobbled Derek Carr or Jameis Winston, the man New Orleans was hoping to improve upon in 2023.

Both defenses are Top 10 in points allowed per game, so scoring should be difficult.

Best Week 4 SGP

Dolphins vs. Bills 1H Over 26.5

James Cook Over 56.5 Rushing Yards

Stefon Diggs 60+ Receiving Yards

+330 at FanDuel

The Dolphins and Bills have gotten out of the gate well this season in more ways than one. Miami leads all teams in points per first half through three weeks (24) while Buffalo is sixth (16.7), and that includes their lackluster Week 1 effort vs. the Jets.

This success dates back to 2022, when the Dolphins amassed 13.6 first-half points per game (sixth in the NFL), while the Bills averaged 15.3 points in the first half (third). I expect Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to pad their respective cases in the NFL MVP odds discussion and sparks to fly early in Orchard Park.

But just because I anticipate points aplenty doesn't mean that the run game will be abandoned. James Cook has excelled as the every-down running back in Buffalo, gathering 6.1 yards per rush on 44 attempts. Miami is 24th in rushing yards allowed per game (130) and 25th in yards allowed per carry (4.6), so Cook should tear his way through this unit.

I'm also tacking on Stefon Diggs to go for at least 60 receiving yards in this contest. It's a number that he's cleared in each of his first three games of 2023 and in 14 of 18 games last year. That includes the postseason, where Diggs torched this Dolphins stop unit to the tune of 114 yards on seven catches. 

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