Situational handicapping really grows claws in the home stretch of the season, with playoff pressures mounting, motivation sometimes a mess, and the long schedule wearing on teams as we head into the NFL Week 15 odds.
I comb through this week’s slate of NFL betting matchups and single out my best situational capping angles — also known as spot bets — to keep in mind before placing your wagers this week. Here are my top letdown, look ahead, and schedule spots.
Letdown spot: Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans (+14, 48.5)
We actually have dueling spot bets in this Week 15 matchup, with Kansas City playing its third straight road game at Houston on Sunday. However, the looming letdown for the Texans trumps that (mainly because the Chiefs are pretty damn good).
Houston gave its state rival Dallas everything it had and nearly stunned the Cowboys in Week 14, but couldn’t break the goal line to deliver the knockout punch in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter. That stop sparked the Cowboys offense, which went end to end for a game-winning drive to escape with a 27-23 victory and falling well short as 17.5-point favorites.
A loss like that makes it tough to get up for the next game and whaddaya know, the Texans are big home underdogs once again. Houston is getting two touchdowns from Kansas City in Week 15 and while it showed some fight against Dallas, it won’t catch K.C. sleeping.
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Look-ahead spot: Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears (+8.5, 48.5)
Philadelphia is rolling toward the top seed in the NFC and only a few teams stand in their way: one being NFC East rival Dallas. The Eagles and Cowboys have a massive matchup set for Christmas Eve in Week 16, with Philly playing in Arlington and the key to the NFC’s No. 1 seed hanging in the balance.
But before that December 24 date in Dallas, the Eagles play their second straight road game in the Windy City in Week 14. Philadelphia has amassed 123 points in the past three games, and that’s powering a point spread that has Philadelphia pegged as big as 9.5-point favorites.
Chicago is coming off a bye week, and while the Bears’ 3-10 straight up mark pales in comparison to the Eagles’ 12-1 SU record, they’ve played hard against some of the tougher opponents on their schedule (San Francisco, New England, Miami, Minnesota).
Point spreads haven’t been a problem for Philly in the past three games, but the schedule does challenge them with back-to-back road games and a dastardly look ahead to a divisional rival and week cramming game prep, travel, and holiday plans in a short window.
Schedule spot: Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills (+7, 42.5)
The schedule gods frown upon the Miami Dolphins in Week 15. Miami faces one of the most daunting spots of the season in what is unquestionably its most important game of the regular slate, with Mike McDaniel’s crew reeling off back-to-back losses.
The Fins visit the rival Buffalo Bills for the inside track in the AFC East, marking their third straight road game after living on the left side of the country the past two weeks, with losses to San Francisco and the L.A. Chargers. That nasty schedule spot comes with a touchdown-sized spread, as the Dolphins are big dogs in Buffalo facing a Bills team out to avenge a Week 3 loss to Miami.
Not only is it road weary, but the Week 15 sked has the Dolphins playing on Saturday, leaving them one less day to return home, recover, prep, and then head to Orchard Park, where “Old Man Winter” waits for this 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff in the cold. The extended forecast for Buffalo is calling for periods of snow, wind gusts close to 30 mph, and game-time temperatures in the “feels like” range of 12 degrees.
Not quite South Beach.
