Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense have shown enough through two weeks to earn my trust, while the Minnesota Vikigs are still searching for answers on that side of the ball.
That combination makes Tampa Bay the side I'm backing in my Vikings vs. Buccaneers prediction. With the Buccaneers essentially listed in a pick'em at home, I expect them to bounce back from last week's disappointing loss to the Browns and get their season on track.
Check out all of our expert NFL picks for Week 3.
TOP Pick
Vikings vs Buccaneers prediction: Buccaneers +1.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been better than their record suggests, and there’s little room for excuses in Week 3.
If Tampa Bay wants to establish itself as the team to beat in a vulnerable NFC South, beating the Minnesota Vikings and Kyler Murray, who's returning from a concussion, at home is crucial.
Baker Mayfield hasn’t found his stride through two games, although poor weather certainly didn't help in Week 2. There's simply too much talent surrounding Mayfield for this offense to remain quiet, especially against the 27th-ranked pass defense.
With better conditions expected in Tampa, look for Mayfield to right the ship in Week 3 as an underdog.
While Mayfield owns a 34-30-1 record as a betting underdog, I'd still play this up to 51%.
COVERS INTEL: While they're 0-2, the Bucs' red-zone defense has been one of the best in the league, allowing teams to score inside the 20 at just a 37% clip — good for seventh in the NFL. They'll make life hell for Murray in his return.
Vikings vs Buccaneers combo
The Buccaneers are in a great spot to right the ship against a leaky Minnesota defense and a quarterback making his first start off a concussion.
And if the Bucs are scoring, you better believe Bucky Irving is going to play a part.
Irving is getting 75% of the carries inside the 20 and continues to be the workhorse, totaling 36 touches across the first two weeks of the season.
Vikings vs Buccaneers combo
- Buccaneers moneyline
- Kyler Murray Under 199.5 passing yards
- Bucky Irving anytime touchdown
Vikings vs Buccaneers touchdown scorer: Bucky Irving
Bucky's red-zone usage alone should make you want to invest in him to score against the Vikings.
Minnesota is coughing up 100 yards per game on the ground, and when you add in Irving's volume both as a runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield, it's the perfect storm for him hitting pay dirt for the second time this season.
Vikings vs Buccaneers player prop: Kyler Murray Under 199.5 passing yards
Murray is expected to return under center after Carson Wentz guided Minnesota to a pair of victories in his absence. Murray managed just 11 snaps in the season opener before exiting with a concussion, and his return comes against a challenging Buccaneers defense that ranks 11th in total defense.
I'm giving this defense the benefit of the doubt to shut down a quarterback returning from a concussion and coming off the worst season of his career.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 15-11, +3.64 units
Vikings vs Buccaneers odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Vikings -1.5 (49%) | Buccaneers +1.5 (52%)
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (50%) | Under 42.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Vikings 52% | Buccaneers 48%
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Vikings vs Buccaneers weather
We'll see some clouds in Tampa on Sunday with temperatures sitting around 84°F, which will have minimal impact come game time.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Vikings vs Buccaneers trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the Vikings' last four games as a favorite. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Buccaneers.
How to watch Vikings vs Buccaneers
| Location | Stadium, City, State |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | TV |
Vikings vs Buccaneers latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
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