The Houston Texans are hitting the road and heading east to New Orleans to take on the Saints in the last preseason football game of 2023 tonight. NFL odds have the Saints as tepid 2.5-point favorites, with the total on the board at 38.
It should be relatively exciting too, with both teams expected to deploy their rookie quarterbacks. For the Texans, that’s No. 2 overall pick CJ Stroud — who is expected to start in the season opener — while the Saints are likely to go with fourth-round pick Jake Haener for the vast majority of the game.
Find out where my best bets lie in our NFL picks and predictions for Texans vs. Saints on Sunday, August 27.
Texans vs Saints odds
Texans vs Saints predictions
It hasn’t been all roses for Houston Texans quarterback CJ Stroud, who might be the only rookie signal caller in recent memory to have a downgrade at receiver after making the jump from college to the NFL.
While not having Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Marvin Harrison Jr., or Emeka Egbuka has hurt, Stroud has still shown some moments of positive play. He had two perfectly placed balls last week against the Miami Dolphins, for instance.
Even with those flashes, he’s been 9-for-16 with 73 yards and an interception through two games while leading Houston to just one scoring drive.
It’s not clear how long Stroud will stay in the game, nor which starters will play with him. Protection up front and separation by his receivers have both been issues this preseason, which could once again make points hard to come by… and makes that Under 38 look appealing.
The Texans’ rushing attack hasn’t done Stroud any favors either, and it’s hard to imagine Dameon Pierce playing much. The running back room has combined for just 118 yards on 36 carries (3.3 yards per carry) in the preseason.
Even if Stroud strings together a few strong series with the help of fellow rookie Tank Dell — a third-round pick who is best described as a jitterbug with his explosive route running — Houston has only scored on four drives this preseason.
Once Stroud is out, Davis Mills and Case Keenum will be in. They both looked solid against the Patriots’ backups in Week 1, but are a combined 28 of 48 for 272 yards through two game with an abysmal 5.6 yards per attempt.
There just aren’t a lot of explosive plays coming out of the Texans backups, and they’ll be dealing with a Saints second unit with some serious athleticism and experience.
Head coach Dennis Allen already confirmed this week that some starters — including Derek Carr — will not be playing in the preseason finale. Usually that means established stars such as Olave, Cameron Jordan, and Marshon Lattimore won’t be out there either.
Despite being without Pro Bowl players on defense, the Saints have depth at every level and should be able to get after Stroud, Mills, and Keenum.
Keep an eye out for first and second-round rookies Bryan Bresee and Isaiah Foskey, two freaky athletes, as they look to beat up on Houston’s offensive line that will presumably be without veterans like Laremy Tunsil, Shaq Mason, and Tytus Howard.
Joining the rookies in giving chase to the Texans quarterbacks will be experienced NFL players like Nathan Shepherd, Carl Granderson, former first-round pick Payton Turner, and Malcolm Roach.
On the second level, even if Pete Werner and Demario Davis don’t play, Allen’s defense has former third-round pick Zack Baun, former Pro Bowler Jaylon Smith, and big-time thumper D’Marco Jackson to provide run support.
On the backend, it’s even better with last year’s most underrated rookie Alontae Taylor joined at corner by Paulson Adebo, Bradley Roby, Isaac Yiadom, and Lonnie Johnson, all of whom have started games.
But to keep this one low-scoring, the Saints’ offense needs to stumble after hanging over 20 points in both their preseason games.
Luckily they won’t have Carr suiting up, and Jameis Winston will be getting the start. One of the most experienced backups in the league, Winston’s health is far too important for the regular season for him to be playing more than a quarter.
Even still, when he’s been out there, it hasn’t been overly exhilarating. The former Heisman winner is 24 of 34 for 261 yards with one touchdown.
The Texans’ pass rush should be able to impact him with No. 3 pick Will Anderson leading the charge, joined by Maliek Collins, Jonathan Greenard, and Sheldon Rankins.
However, the real scoring drought should come when Haener comes into the lineup. Not that he’s been bad this preseason, but he’s a rookie and there’s been inconsistencies and times he’s put the ball in conflict.
The Fresno State product is 21 of 34 for 223 yards with a touchdown and an interception this preseason while leading five scoring drives, four of which ended in field goals.
Part of that has been their inability to run the ball, even when Alvin Kamara and free agent acquisition Jamaal Williams are in there, and it’s not for lack of trying.
Through two preseason games, the Saints’ running backs have combined for 128 yards on 48 carries. That’s a measly 2.7 yards per carry.
Rookie quarterbacks with inconsistent offensive line play and no run game to lean on usually equals few points being scored.
My best bet: Under 38 (-110 at Caesars)
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Texans vs Saints spread and Over/Under analysis
After winning their preseason opener — and covering the 4.5-point spread on the road against the New England Patriots — the Texans got walked over as 1.5-point favorites at home against the Dolphins.
They opened their third preseason game as 3.5-point dogs at most books, but after the news that the Saints won’t be playing some starters, the line has shifted to +2.5 pretty much everywhere.
The Saints being favored once again is no surprise with the way they took care of business against the Kansas City Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites in Week 1 and backed it up as 3.5-point road chalk vs. the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2.
With the Texans hitting the Under in both their games this preseason, and the Saints hitting the Over in both of theirs, the total between these two opened between 37.5 and 38.5.
It hasn’t shifted much, even with Carr not playing, as most books still have it at around 38.
Texans vs Saints betting trend to know
The Houston Texans have hit the game total Under in six of their last eight preseason games. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Saints.
Texans vs Saints game info
| Location: | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Sunday, August 27, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | Saints -3.5, 37.5 |
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