The New England Patriots face their toughest defensive test in the Divisional Round with the Houston Texans coming to town.
New England looked great in its Wild Card win over the Chargers, but Houston is a significant step up in competition for a team with a questionable “strength of schedule."
I run down the opening odds and early line moves as well as provide leans, Texans vs. Patriots predictions, and NFL picks for Sunday, January 18.
Texans vs Patriots predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Texans vs Patriots spread pick: Patriots -3
This spread opened as short as New England -2.5, but we’ve seen a market consensus settle in at a field goal on Tuesday morning. Vig on Patriots -3 is climbing at sharper books, and perhaps we see this tick to -3.5 later in the week.
New England looked great on both sides of the ball in the Wild Card Round, and once again has home-field advantage against a warm-weather foe that plays indoors. The Houston Texans offense has been hampered on the road and in open-air venues.
Houston put up 30 points in its Wild Card win at Pittsburgh, but two of those touchdowns came via the defense.
The Texans' stop unit bottled up the Steelers and handed over extra possessions to the offense, which looked a little better than it shows in the box score – avoiding fallout from three C.J. Stroud turnovers.
With points likely at a premium on Sunday, avoid a 3.5-point spread if you’re backing New England. If you like Houston, wait and see if you can get the half-point buffer on the road dog.
Early Texans vs Patriots total pick: Under 41.5
As mentioned, the Texans’ scoreboard didn’t tell the full story when it came to the offensive production.
Due to the Steelers’ anemic offense, the Pittsburgh defense was forced to play more than 32 minutes and eventually broke in the second half. Two defensive scores may be skewing the early movement on this total, which jumped from 40.5 to 41.5 points.
Houston’s defense – specifically the pass defense – is elite. The Texans don’t give up much downfield and face a New England receiving corps lacking a game-breaking receiver. New England is also very good at taking away downfield threats and limiting explosive plays.
Much like the Patriots’ win over Los Angeles, this matchup with the Texans will be full of shorter gains and extended drives, anchored in the run. Houston marched for 163 yards and 5.3 yards per carry versus the Steelers, while New England totaled 146 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per attempt against L.A.
I like the Under with a half-point hook on the happy side of the key O/U number of 41.5.
Texans vs Patriots odds
- Texans vs. Patriots spread: Patriots -3
- Texans vs. Patriots moneyline: Texans +138, Broncos -164
- Texans vs. Patriots Over/Under: 41.5
How to watch Texans vs Patriots
- Texans vs. Patriots matchup
- Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026, 3:00 p.m. ET
- City: Foxborough, MA
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
- TV: ESPN/ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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