The New England Patriots are set to host the Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Round today.
Although the Texans are coming off a dominant performance on defense against Pittsburgh, we expect the Patriots to pull off the home win in front of the Massachusetts faithful.
Here are our expert Texans vs. Patriots predictions for Sunday, January 18, with kickoff set for 3:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Texans vs Patriots predictions
- Patriots -3 (-118 at FanDuel)
- Under 41.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
- Henry anytime TD pick (+190 at FanDuel)
- Kirk o38.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Texans vs Patriots best bets
Patriots -3
Buoyed by the play of New England's star quarterback, Neil Parker has New England covering as field-goal favorites this afternoon.
"New England has paced the NFL in offensive DVOA dating back to Week 14 of the regular season, and I’m confident quarterback Drake Maye’s mobility can offset the Houston pass rush."
Under 41.5
Jason Logan anticipates a low-scoring affair due to the lack of explosive passing plays from either side.
"Much like the Patriots’ win over Los Angeles, this matchup with the Texans will be reserved for shorter gains and extended drives, anchored in the run.
Houston marched for 163 yards and 5.3 yards per carry versus the Steelers, while New England totaled 146 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per attempt against L.A.
I like the Under with a half-point hook on the happy side of the key O/U number of 41.5."
Texans vs Patriots TD picks
Hunter Henry anytime touchdown
Hunter Henry finished the regular season as the team’s leader in receiving touchdowns, and Quinn Allen is bullish on Drake Maye finding his favorite security blanket for another one.
"Henry has touched paydirt in three of his last four appearances, and he scored a TD in the Wild Card Round victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. Four of his seven touchdowns have come at Gillette Stadium, and you could count the playoff score as well, which makes it five."
Texans vs Patriots props
Christian Kirk Over 38.5 receiving yards
Coming off a standout outing against Pittsburgh, Rohit Ponnaiya has Christian Kirk topping his receiving yards O/U once again.
"With Houston ruling out No. 1 WR Nico Collins due to a concussion, Christian Kirk is poised for another high-volume outing. The veteran hauled in eight of nine targets for 144 yards in last week’s win over the Steelers.
Earlier in the season, Kirk’s production was limited by a lingering hamstring injury and a crowded receiver room. Now fully healthy, he’s become a key target for Texans QB C.J. Stroud, especially on third down."
Texans vs Patriots odds
Texans vs Patriots game info
| Location: | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, January 18, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Texans vs Patriots latest injuries
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