The Houston Texans bring an elite defense to Gillette Stadium to face the rolling New England Patriots in the Divisional Round on Sunday, January 18.
My top NFL picks and Texans vs. Patriots predictions expect Houston wide receiver Christian Kirk to have another solid day through the air while ultimately coming up short on the road in New England.
Texans vs Patriots prediction
Texans vs Patriots Best bet: Christian Kirk Over 38.5 receiving yards (-111)
The door remains open for Houston Texans slot receiver Christian Kirk to see another uptick in targets with No. 1 wideout Nico Collins in concussion protocol and unlikely to play.
Kirk went good to the tune of eight catches for 144 yards on nine targets last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the New England Patriots finished 25th in pass defense DVOA during the regular season.
Kirk will also have a size advantage against Pats slot corner Marcus Jones, and Jones surrendered a 75% catch rate and 113.9 NFL passer rating this season.
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Texans vs Patriots same-game parlay
New England has paced the NFL in offensive DVOA dating back to Week 14 of the regular season, and I’m confident quarterback Drake Maye’s mobility can offset the Houston pass rush.
Maye has rushed for 41 or more yards in three of the past five games, and the Texans allowed the second-highest yards per rush to opposing quarterbacks during the regular season (6.42).
Turning to Pats running back Rhamondre Stevenson, he ranks seventh in PFF pass block grade, so I’m anticipating him being leaned on for added snaps and looks in the passing attack as another means of mitigating the Houston pressuring Maye.
Plus, Stevenson has topped this total in each of the past six games while averaging 41 receiving yards per game.
Texans vs Patriots SGP
- Patriots -3
- Drake Maye Over 35.5 rushing yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 20.5 receiving yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Stevenson finds paydirt
Stevenson has found the end zone in three of the past four games with six total touchdowns.
Texans vs Patriots SGP
- Patriots -3
- Drake Maye Over 35.5 rushing yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 20.5 receiving yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown
Texans vs Patriots odds
- Spread: Houston +3 (-104) | New England -3 (-118)
- Moneyline: Houston +150 | New England -178
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-115) | Under 40.5 (-105)
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Texans vs Patriots trend to know
The New England Patriots have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 53% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Patriots.
How to watch Texans vs Patriots
| Location | Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA |
| Date | Sunday, January 18, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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