My USA vs. Australia predictions count on a high-scoring game in Seattle at 3 p.m. ET, helping to shorten the Americans' World Cup odds as they move closer to winning Group D.
Christian Pulisic is not expected to start for the USA, but we are still backing the Americans to get the win and give themselves an easier path in the knockout stages behind another strong effort from Folarin Balogun.
Below, I break down my World Cup picks for Friday, June 19, with kickoff at 3 p.m. on FOX. We also offer a goal scorer pick, starting lineups, injuries, and weather.
Who will win USA vs Australia: USA -1.5 (+158)
Australia’s stunning 2-0 win over Turkiye saw the Aussies withstand a barrage on goal. Turkiye held 72% possession and attempted 30 shots, racking up 1.36 xG on eight accurate shots.
However, Turkiye made some odd decisions with their lineup. Leaving Kenan Yildiz on the bench for 45 minutes left them in a creative bind at times in the first half.
The other thing Turkiye failed to do was win the ball back without leaving space for the Aussies to counter. Their fullbacks repeatedly got caught out of position as they employed a full team press.
Mauricio Pochettino had the Americans set up to pressure Paraguay when they won the ball back, but did so without throwing the entire team forward. They also have more pace in defense than the Turks did, with Antonee Robinson and Chris Richards able to track back quickly.
Australia was able to stay in its compact shell and allow GK Patrick Beach to be a hero, as he came up with eight saves. That won’t be possible against a USA side with much more mobility and better movement, particularly from ST Folarin Balogun.
Avoid the juice on the 3-way market, and back the Americans to win again by multiple goals. I’ll play this down to +150.
"We will have to be at our best."
— U.S. Soccer Men's National Team (@USMNT) June 19, 2026
Mauricio Pochettino breaks down our second group stage match against Australia on Friday.#USMNT x @LaColombeCoffee pic.twitter.com/QsTrjaoRlw
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USA vs Australia Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (+100)
As a neutral, I loved watching Beach hold Turkiye at bay. That said, the odds of him repeating that performance here are quite low.
The Americans put four goals past Paraguay, a side that allowed just 10 goals in 18 CONMEBOL qualification matches.
They did so with flair, supported by overloading wide areas and forcing the Paraguayan wide players and attackers to either support the defense or allow them to get overrun.
Christian Pulisic's playmaking ability will be missed. That said, Gio Reyna or Brendan Aaronson can both step into his role. Malik Tillman will also be looked upon to repeat his performance against Paraguay, where he created three chances. Balogun presented himself for passes a staggering 56 times in the opening fixture, and that movement will help the Americans generate plenty of scoring opportunities.
This USMNT used to rely on breaking down a compact defense with individual brilliance. Pochettino now has them getting on the ball early and being aggressive.
Playing in front of a ravenous fanbase in Seattle, they’ll feed off the energy and lay down another marker in this tournament.
This is my top play, and I’m backing it to -110. See our best USA vs. Australia goal scorer predictions for who could factor into this Over pick.
TOp pick
USA vs Australia goal scorer pick: Folarin Balogun (+150)
We keep track of the World Cup set piece takers to give you an edge on all of your goal scorer predictions.
Folarin Balogun’s scoring odds have dropped from the +200 we got him at in the opener, but I’m still backing him here.
It’s not just that he scored two goals. It’s what he did for his entire time on the pitch. Balogun’s movement continuously caused problems for the Paraguay back line, as they were having to track him as he drifted wide in addition to him continuously operating in their blind spots.
His ability to create spaces for service from the likes of Pulisic and Tillman is a trait the Americans have lacked at this position for a very long time.
He’s in tremendous form, and we’re backing him yet again to score at plus-money.
What do Bald Eagles, Kangaroos, and Atlas Lions have in common?
— Chris Vasile (@mc_silly3) June 19, 2026
They're all on today's World Cup betting card for @Covers
🇺🇸 USA vs Australia 🇦🇺
🇲🇦 Morocco vs Scotland🏴 pic.twitter.com/GMB4yPWCRx
Get ready for today's next game with our Morocco vs. Scotland predictions.
Today's World Cup expert picks
Don't miss the rest of our picks for today's World Cup action:
- USA vs. Australia expert picks
- USA vs. Australia goal scorer predictions
- USA vs. Australia starting lineups
- Morocco vs. Scotland predictions
- Brazil vs. Haiti predictions
- Turkey vs. Paraguay predictions
- Top World Cup parlays today
- World Cup goal scorer predictions today
USA vs Australia projected lineup
USA (4-3-3): Freese; Freeman, Richards, Ream, Robinson; Adams, Tillman, Mckennie; Dest, Balogun, Pulisic
Australia (3-4-2-1): Beach; Circati, Souttar, Burgess; Italiano, O’Neill, Okon-Engstler, Bos; Irankunda, Toure, Metcalfe
See more on the USA vs. Australia starting lineups.
USA vs Australia injuries
USA: Christian Pulisic (Probable).
Australia: No injuries to report.
USA vs Australia weather
Temperatures will peak at 79 degrees near halftime, with few clouds and a 0% chance of rain. Wind gusts will be up to 14 mph.
USA vs Australia odds today
| USA | Australia | |
|---|---|---|
| -163 | Moneyline | +426 |
| +355 | Draw | +355 |
| Over 2.5 (-108) | Total | Under 2.5 (+108) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch USA vs Australia
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Friday, June 19, 2026 |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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