The 2026 World Cup is officially underway, and the USMNT looks to claim three crucial points when they host Paraguay at Los Angeles Stadium tonight.
Defensive anchor Chris Richards announced he is fully fit and available for selection following an ankle injury—a massive boost that highlights why my USA vs. Paraguay predictions back the Americans to secure a winning start in Group D.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Friday, June 12, with kickoff at 9 p.m. ET on FOX.
top pick
Who will win USA vs Paraguay: USA (-104)
Host nations have won 16 of their 23 opening matches at the World Cup, with only Qatar in 2022 suffering defeat. There’s a different sort of atmosphere that comes from years of anticipation for that opening fixture, and I’m expecting the USMNT to feed off that energy.
Chris Richards stated he can start on Friday after recovering from an ankle injury. He adds a level of skill and experience that the three-man back line needs to be at its best.
His presence allows the Americans to send their dynamic wingbacks forward. Antonee “Jedi” Robinson showed his offensive prowess with an absolute piledriver of a volley against Germany this past weekend.
He and Sergino Dest will be attacking assets against a Paraguay side that qualified behind a compact and stingy defense that led CONMEBOL in tackles and clearances per match, while conceding just 10 goals in 18 matches.
Christian Pulisic, Malik Tillman, and Folarin Balogun will create chaos inside the Paraguayan box with their rotations, and the USMNT will find a way through to get their Group D campaign off to a winning start.
I’m backing the Americans as my top pick, and would play them up to -120.
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USA vs Paraguay Over/Under Pick: Under 2.5 (-155)
Paraguay fell 2-1 to the United States in a friendly last November, managing just three shots on target. However, that was an American squad that featured just six players who are expected to start on Friday.
This full American squad is vastly more talented than Paraguay’s, with players honed by much tougher domestic competition. That’s part of the reason I’m backing the USMNT to win a low-scoring affair where Paraguay fails to get on the scoresheet.
Paraguay managed just 14 goals during those 18 qualifiers, averaging just 15.8 touches in the opposing penalty area. Their lone recent friendly against a World Cup side was a 2-1 loss to Morocco, where they scored an 88th-minute goal against a heavily-rotated squad.
They won't have that luxury on Friday. Julio Enciso's status remains in the air, and his presence would be a huge boost for the underdogs.
That said, both Richards and Tyler Adams are more than capable of neutralizing the counter-attacking thrust of Enciso and Miguel Almiron, limiting their ability to generate scoring chances.
Mauricio Pochettino's adjustments against Germany limited the world’s 10th-ranked team to just four shots on target. Paraguay’s anemic attack may not test Matt Freese even that often.
Our World Cup odds have this currently priced at -155, which is as low as I'd go.
USA vs Paraguay goal scorer pick
Folarin Balogun (+200)
Folarin Balogun scored the winning goal in that 2-1 friendly win last fall with a clinical finish following a cutback from Gio Reyna.
Now he will have the likes of Pulisic, Tillman, and McKennie feeding him passes from the outset. His movement in the box is the best of any American striker, and he thrives at operating on the back shoulder of defenders.
That makes him a terrific option against Paraguay’s mid-block, as he’ll be able to pick out pockets of space into which Pulisic & Co. will provide him service.
He’s a co-favorite with Pulisic to score, but I expect Paraguay to focus heavily on the winger. That provides value on Balogun, and I’d play him to score up to +175.
USA vs Paraguay projected lineup
USA (3-4-2-1): Freese; Freeman, Ream, Richards; Dest, Adams, McKennie, A. Robinson; Pulisic, Tillman; Balogun
Paraguay (4-4-2): Fernandez; Caceres, G. Gomez, Alderete, Alonso; Bobadilla, Cubas, D. Gomez, Mauricio; Sanabria, Almiron
USA vs Paraguay injuries
USAs: Chris Richards CB (Probable).
Paraguay: Julio Enciso LW (Questionable).
USA vs Paraguay weather
Dome.
USA vs Paraguay odds
 USA |
 Paraguay |
|
|---|---|---|
| -104 | Moneyline | +335 |
| +245 | Draw | +245 |
| Over 2.5 (+144) | Total | Under 2.5 (-155) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch USA vs Paraguay
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location |
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
|
|
| Date | Friday, June 12, 2026 | |
| Time | 9:00 p.m. ET | |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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