Super Bowl Odds Analysis: Late Money on the Under Drops Total Hours Before Kickoff

The Super Bowl kicks off in just a few hours, which means sportsbooks are absolutely buzzing with bets coming in on the Big Game.

The Super Bowl odds are a unique market, opening two weeks ago with a flurry of money on the Kansas City Chiefs, seeing buy back on the San Francisco 49ers from pro bettors last weekend, and holding firm for the most part until this weekend.

However, people wagering on their Chiefs vs. 49ers predictions on game day has brought significant line moves to the Super Bowl betting odds, especially the Over/Under total.

With the opening whistle just hours away, here’s a look at the late Super Bowl line movement and odds adjustments.

Super Bowl odds latest movement

Against the spread

The Super Bowl LVIII spread opened as big as San Francisco -3 in the wake of the conference championship games two weeks ago... and the early opinion was all about KC.

The Chiefs quickly slimmed to as low as -1 in that first week of action, before bettors circled back on the discounted spread for San Francisco. Books also took money from respected gambling groups and that pushed the point spread into a dead zone between -1.5 and -2.5 (moving on and around dead numbers with little liability).

This morning, the market consensus was 49ers -2 but we saw sharper books start to climb to -2.5 and some mainstream operators followed suit. As of 3:30 p.m. ET, you could get San Francisco -1.5 (-110) and Kansas City +2.5 (-110) if you shopped around.

In speaking with oddsmakers earlier in the week, they didn’t expect to see this spread return to a field goal line so if you’re waiting for a Kansas City +3, don’t hold your breath. And if it does show, it won’t last long.

According to many reports from mainstream sportsbooks, the Chiefs are still drawing the bulk of tickets on the spread, ranging from 63% to 67% of bet count. The handle (total money wagered) is also heavy on the underdog, with as much as 82% of money on KC and the points.

Total

The Super Bowl Over/Under total opened between 47 and 48, and naturally met in the middle with a market consensus of 47.5 O/U.

The number stayed there for the majority of the last two weeks, but we saw a notable move to the Under on Super Bowl Sunday.

This afternoon, the 47.5 totals started to slim to 47 at respected online markets and then the whole board dropped to 47. From there, sportsbooks like FanDuel dropped to 46.5 (Over -115) – a notable adjustment through the key O/U number of 47 points.

According to reports from operators, more than 60% of ticket count is on the Over but the money is more balanced. Bookies are seeing a slight lean to the Over in terms of handle (52% to 53%).

Moneyline

The Super Bowl moneyline odds opened with Kansas City as a +115 outright underdog and that was a very popular pick, especially with the spread trending under a field goal.

The Chiefs would slide to as short as -105 before buyback on the 49ers forced an adjustment the other way. Currently, San Francisco ranges from -134 to -120 with Kansas City set between +100 and +121 at sharper books heavy on Niners play.

Between 72% and 82% of the handle is passing on the points and playing the Chiefs to win outright as underdogs. Ticket count is also in favor of the reigning champs, with about 75% of ticket count on KC.

The moneyline is also tied into any remaining liability from the Super Bowl futures books. San Francisco was among the favorites all season and most operators were heavy on 49ers tickets — but all that play on the Chiefs to win outright has dulled that risk and some shops are actually pulling for the 49ers as we close in on kickoff.

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