It’s a lopsided Christmas slate, with potentially three third-string quarterbacks starting, but that isn’t slowing down the X-mas TD train — Santa just needs to get a little more creative this holiday season.
It's time to look at RB2 in Dallas with nothing to play for, WR2 in Detroit has quietly been putting up WR1 numbers, and injuries to the Denver wide receivers might be opening up more work for a receiver whose stock is low.
These are my three favorite TD props and NFL picks for each game on Thursday, December 25.
DAL 
WAS
DET 
DEN 
KC Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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Cowboys vs Commanders
Malik Davis (+225 at DraftKings) A-
With the Dallas Cowboys eliminated from the playoff picture, I’m looking for a potential Malik Davis usage spike.
The Cowboys’ running back finished last week with just one fewer carry than Javonte Williams, who played only 35% of second-half snaps — potentially signaling a bigger role in a game with little at stake.
There’s also the added context of Jerry Jones publicly discussing a desire to re-sign Williams, who is set to hit free agency after the season. There's no need to push him against the Washington Commanders.
Over the last three weeks, Davis has had five red-zone carries to Williams' seven.
Lions vs Vikings
Jameson Williams (+180 at DraftKings) A+
The Detroit Lions could dominate the ball on Thursday against a Minnesota Vikings team likely starting Max Brosmer, which is missing a key running back, the starting center, and possibly even TE1. This team looked putrid versus the Giants last week and could be even worse with the injuries and a quick turnaround.
Detroit will be motivated following its dramatic home loss to Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Lions' passing game has been spreading the ball around more lately, giving touchdown value to players beyond Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Jameson Williams is a solid price at +180 (consider buying down to +160/+165). He’s been targeted on 23% of passes over the last three weeks and is matching St. Brown’s yardage output, yet his TD odds are more than 70 cents longer.
For a bigger payday, Isaac TeSlaa (+400) boasts nearly as many red-zone targets as Williams since the bye and is coming off career-high usage in Week 16.
Broncos vs Chiefs
Troy Franklin (+205 at DraftKings) A
This sets up as another game with a lopsided time-of-possession script. The Kansas City Chiefs ran just 43 offensive plays last week compared to 70 for Tennessee, and a similar dynamic could be in play again. The big-name Denver Broncos options like RJ Harvey and Courtland Sutton are tough to buy at current prices, but Pat Bryant's injury opens the door for value elsewhere.
Bryant had been carving into Troy Franklin’s target share before suffering a concussion on a short week, making his availability unlikely. With Bryant out of the picture, Franklin’s role should expand. He has quietly scored five touchdowns over his last nine games, and his usage trend is pointing up.
This is the same receiver who was seeing double-digit targets before the bye and posted 84 yards on four catches and eight targets against Kansas City back in Week 11.
Christmas Day anytime touchdown parlay
Malik Davis
Jameson Williams
Troy Franklin
Davis’ trend line is moving in the right direction, and the red-zone usage supports it.
Williams has scored a touchdown in five of eight games, including a Week 9 matchup against the Vikings.
Franklin has a realistic path to becoming the No. 2 option in the passing game this week.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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