Super Bowl Odds Update: There Could Be Value on Bengals Amid Rough Start to Season

The Bengals are in a really rough patch to start the season and despite overtures to fill holes in the offensive line, Joe Burrow has been sacked a league-high 13 times. Is this who Cincinnati is or are the Bengals about to go on another improbable run?

Last Updated: Sep 20, 2022 3:30 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals NFL
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Super Bowl odds were skeptical about the Cincinnati Bengals' rise even after almost winning the Super Bowl in February, entering this season at +2,100 on the NFL futures board. 

After back-to-back losses as more than 7-point faves to begin the year, the Bengals' futures odds have fallen to +3,300. Is Cincinnati the next team to suffer from the Super Bowl hangover or is this early-season hiccup a good opportunity for bettors to grab a young and talented squad at a better price?

Here's our analysis of the Bengals' Super Bowl odds heading into Week 3.

Latest Cincinnati Bengals Super Bowl odds

Market Odds
To win Super Bowl +3,300
To win division +300
To make playoffs +145

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of September 20, 2022.

Latest Cincinnati Bengals odds movement

Despite retaining almost their entire starting lineup from a year ago and spending big to improve their offensive line, the Bengals were a +2,100 Super Bowl dark horse to begin the year.

They lost in overtime to the Pittsburgh Steelers as 7.5-point home favorites in Week 1. However, they turned the ball over five times and outgained the Steelers 432-267 so it seemed like they would be in line for positive regression in Week 2 against a Cowboys squad led by backup quarterback Cooper Rush.

Instead, they again lost outright as 7.5-point chalk, falling 20-17 in Dallas. Cincinnati's offense mustered just 254 yards and 3.8 yards per play and now ranks 30th in the league in success rate.

After that defeat, the Bengals dropped to +3,300 on the Super Bowl futures board while their payout to win the AFC North now sits at +300 after opening at +170.

The most concerning thing about the Bengals is that despite signing Ted Karras, Alex Cappa, and La'el Collins, their offensive line continues to be among the worst in the NFL and has already surrendered 13 sacks.

With Cincinnati's futures odds falling, the Baltimore Ravens have seen their odds to win the AFC North shorten to +100 (opened at +140) with their Super Bowl odds shifting to +1,800 after opening at +2,100.

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Cincinnati Bengals odds outlook

Despite starting the season in an 0-2 hole, the Bengals have value at their current futures price — especially at 3 to 1 to win AFC North.

This is still a highly-talented (and healthy) squad with offensive weapons and I trust Joe Burrow's form during the entire 2021 season over his two outlier games to begin this year. Although the Bengals' O-line is still pathetic, it didn't stop them from making their Super Bowl run last year. 

They're also just one game behind the other teams in the AFC North and all those squads have significant shortcomings of their own. The Ravens and Browns rank near the bottom of the league in Defensive EPA/play after ugly Week 2 performances while the Browns and Steelers don't inspire much confidence with Jacoby Brisset and Mitchell Trubisky under center, respectively. 

In Week 3, the Bengals head to the Meadowlands to face the Jets as 4.5-point faves, which is much shorter than the -11.5 line they had on the road against them last October.

The Jets lost 24-9 to the Ravens in Week 1 before bouncing back with a 31-30 comeback victory against the Browns on Sunday. Joe Flacco threw for 307 yards and four touchdowns in that contest. When the Bengals and their porous secondary faced the Jets last October, they surrendered 405 passing yards to backup QB Mike White in a 34-31 loss.

One positive about this matchup is the Jets rank 25th in the league in QB pressure rate and have just three sacks, so they might not be able to take advantage of Cincinnati's piss-poor pass blocking.

This will be a crucial game for Cincy with a home date against the 2-0 Dolphins in Week 4, followed by a road trip to Baltimore. 

Cincinnati Bengals upcoming schedule

Week 3 @ New York Jets

Week 4 vs. Miami Dolphins (Thursday, September 29, 8:15 p.m ET)

Week 5 @ Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, October 9, 8:20 p.m. ET)

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