You can hear the intro music already, and we are primed for a big Sunday Night Football clash between the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers.
It's been a fun Sunday so far, but we're shooting for the moon here and getting in on some longshot prices.
Before locking in your Lions vs. Panthers predictions, you must read my Sunday Night Football long-shot picks, and check out our extensive NFL picks page as Week 4 rolls on.
Sunday Night Football long-shot picks
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Over 31.5 points 2H
Waller 70+ receiving yardsPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Over 31.5 points 2H
These are two of the league’s highest-scoring teams, and both rank comfortably in the top half of the league for offensive DVOA. We expected it from the Lions, but the Panthers have been a surprise in just how strong they’ve looked.
They’re also optimistic about Jalen Coker returning, which would be a shot in the arm for the offense.
These are two high-scoring teams but the bulk of that has been in the second halves of games this season. The Lions are averaging a league-best 19.67 2H points, while the Panthers also sit in the Top 10. Neither have been strong defensively, with the Lions ranking second-worst in terms of most points allowed in the second half, and the Panthers in 11th.
Pick #2: Darren Waller 70+ receiving yards
Darren Waller might be listed at TE2 on the depth chart behind Tommy Tremble, but it’s clear that the veteran is the primary pass-catcher in the tight end corps. The former Dolphin has been quietly productive, averaging 37.3 yards per game and scoring two touchdowns already this season.
I think he has a chance for a huge game on Sunday Night Football against a Lions defense that has struggled big time against tight ends.
No team in the league has allowed more yardage to the position than the Lions (351) so far this season. In the past two weeks alone they’ve let Kenyon Sadiq break 100 yards, with Dalton Kincaid falling just short.
Pick #3: Amon-Ra St. Brown 2+ touchdowns
Through two games, we’ve seen Amon-Ra St. Brown score five touchdowns, making that two games with multiple tuddies. He’s been a volume monster with 35 targets through the opening three games of the season with an impressive 9.9 yards per catch.
St. Brown’s ability to create separation is truly elite, and its no shock to see that he is tied with Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the most red-zone targets in the NFL (nine).
Last week we saw Harold Fannin Jr. score twice against this Panthers defense, and St. Brown will be confident he can do the same if he continues to see a high workload.
Week 4 SNF long-shot combo
Over 31.5 points 2H
Darren Waller 70+ receiving yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime touchdown
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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