Our Lions vs. Panthers expert picks feature four different angles for Sunday Night Football, with our analysts targeting the spread, total, and a pair of plus-money touchdown scorers.
Read on for our favorite NFL picks for Sunday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
Lions vs Panthers expert picks
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| Expert Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jason Logan: Sione Vaki anytime touchdown |
12% |
 Josh Inglis: Brycen Tremayne anytime touchdown |
12% |
 Joe Osborne: Over 51.5 |
49% |
 Jon Metler: Panthers +3.5 |
52% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Jason Logan’s expert pick: Sione Vaki anytime touchdown
Price: 12% at Kalshi
Jahmyr Gibbs has the highest odds of anyone scoring a touchdown in Week 4, which immediately has me looking toward Detroit’s RB2 for value.
Given Carolina’s injuries, there’s a path to the Detroit Lions building a comfortable lead and giving Sione Vaki more work in the second half to limit Gibbs’ usage. Vaki saw his snap share spike in Week 3, and head coach Dan Campbell praised his performance afterward.
The matchup helps, too. Carolina has struggled badly against the run and in the red zone while already allowing six touchdowns to running backs. I like Vaki’s chances of finding the end zone late in this one.
Josh Inglis' expert pick: Brycen Tremayne anytime touchdown
Price: 11.8% at Kalshi
The Carolina Panthers could be extremely thin at wide receiver, with Jalen Coker practicing on the side Thursday after exiting Week 3 and Xavier Legette not practicing.
That creates an appealing opportunity for Brycen Tremayne against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in EPA per dropback and success rate. Detroit’s secondary is also dealing with significant injuries, with Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch out and DJ Reed questionable.
Tremayne played 81% of Carolina’s offensive snaps last week and ran a route on 76% of dropbacks, turning six targets into 83 yards. His current 11.8% probability offers strong value, and if Coker and Legette are both ruled out, that number could shorten considerably.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Over 51.5
Price: 49% at Kalshi
The Lions have opened the season with three straight Overs, with their games averaging 62.6 combined points.
Carolina has scored 37 and 34 points in two of its first three games, while allowing 59 the lone time it faced a respectable offense. Both secondaries are also dealing with injuries, with Detroit banged up and Carolina losing Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson to injured reserve.
The Lions can trade scores with anyone, while their defense ranks 31st on both third down and in the red zone. That should give Carolina enough opportunities to contribute to another high-scoring Detroit game.
Jon Metler’s expert pick: Panthers +3.5
Price: 52% at Kalshi
Give me the Panthers at +3.5, as I project them closer to a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday Night Football.
Detroit’s pass defense and secondary have struggled enough to make me comfortable backing Bryce Young. Geno Smith went into Ford Field and completed 31 of 37 passes for 321 yards and three touchdowns, and Young should have opportunities to generate explosive plays on deep crossing routes against this Lions secondary.
There may only be a 1-point difference between my projection and the market, but getting through the key number of -3 with the extra half-point is exactly why I’m willing to back Carolina.
How to watch Lions vs Panthers
| Location | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C. |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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