Bird is the word on Sunday Night Football, and we've got Ravens vs. Falcons best bets for this Week 5 affair.
See why Jason Logan's Ravens vs. Falcons predictions and NFL picks aren't falling for "Falcons Fever" below, and much more.
Sunday Night Football predictions: Ravens vs Falcons
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Falcons moneyline |
64% |
 Ravens +3.5 |
52% |
| Penix Jr. 19+ pass completions |
53% |
| Henry Under 79.5 rushing yards |
54% |
| Zay Flowers TD |
31% |
Probabilities courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Who will win Ravens vs Falcons?
Our prediction: Falcons to win — Yes (64%)
Geoff Clark's Ravens vs. Falcons moneyline pick is fairly confident in Atlanta.
"Lamar is hurt, and the Atlanta Falcons have beaten the brakes off both opponents since Michael Penix Jr. made his season debut. Penix has a solid offensive line, a top-three running back in football, and a true No. 1 receiver in Drake London.
The Falcons also rank fourth in net early-down EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com. Early-down efficiency is one of the most predictive metrics in football because the entire playbook remains available."
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Sunday Night Football spread prediction
Our prediction: Falcons -3.5 — No (52%)
Jason Logan's Sunday Night Football predictions believe the Falcons will flop in their jump up in class vs. the Ravens.
"Baltimore sends QB2 Tyler Huntley into the fray, riding a steady second-half effort in Week 4.
Huntley is a downgrade from Jackson but can move the chains with his arms and legs. It also helps to have burly RB Derrick Henry to lean on, placing Huntley in manageable down and distance.
Baltimore also presents the best defense the Falcons have faced, sitting just outside the Top 10 in many sexy metrics through its first four games under Jesse Minter. The Falcons have feasted on soft stop units and will be playing on a short week after Monday’s win."
Ravens vs Falcons Night Football player props
Rushing prop: Derrick Henry Over 79.5 rushing yards — No (54%)
Clark is going with Derrick Henry to fall short of rushing total tonight.
"The Atlanta Falcons are allowing the fewest yards per carry (2.7) and rushing yards per game (48.3). The Falcons are also the only team to hold opponents to negative yards after contact per carry through the first three weeks, according to Pro.NFL.com.
With Lamar Jackson out this week, Atlanta can pack the box to keep Henry from going off. He rushed for fewer than 72 yards in two of the four games Lamar missed last season.
Since I have the Falcons winning and covering, there’s also a world where the Baltimore Ravens abandon the run earlier than usual."
Passing prop: Michael Penix Jr. 19+ pass completions — Yes (53%)
Clark is also expecting a busy night for Michael Penix Jr.
"Penix has completed at least 19 passes in seven of his 14 career starts, but hasn’t done so this season because Atlanta has controlled both games and hasn’t needed much passing volume.
Penix’s completion rate is 3.1 percentage points above expectation, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, while Baltimore ranks 22nd in opponent completion rate.
The Ravens are allowing 22.8 completions per game, and every opposing quarterback has reached at least 19. If Baltimore takes away Atlanta’s preferred ground game, Penix will see enough volume to clear this number."
Check out all of our Ravens vs. Falcons props.
Ravens anytime touchdown prop: Zay Flowers — Yes (31%)
See why Sam Farley is going with Zay Flowers to hit paydirt.
"Heading into Sunday Night Football, we still see Zay Flowers on the injury report but I’m confident we’ll see him suit up. The Baltimore Ravens certainly need him and he’s been lights out this season, with two touchdowns in three games. He had a stellar performance against the Titans, hauling in eight of 10 targets for 118 yards and a TD.
He was targeted on 33% of his routes run this past week, which shows just how often he’s the first look for his QB. Sadly that QB won't be Lamar Jackson this week but regardless of that he's a solid play here. He leads his team in red zone targets this season, despite missing Week 2."
Read our full Ravens vs. Falcons touchdown picks for more TD angles.
Ravens vs Falcons live markets explained
Kalshi event contracts can be bought and sold as the Ravens vs. Falcons unfolds, meaning traders aren't necessarily locked into their original pregame position.
The probabilities will move throughout the game as the score, time remaining, possession, and game state change.
How do Ravens vs Falcons prediction markets work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where users trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, users trade event contracts based on simple Yes/No questions such as "Will the Ravens beat the Falcons?"
Contract prices reflect the market's estimated probability of an outcome. A contract trading at 23%, for example, indicates that the market is assigning that outcome roughly a 23% chance of occurring. If the prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1; if it is incorrect, it settles at $0.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
At a traditional sportsbook, bettors wager against prices established by the bookmaker. Kalshi instead operates as an exchange, with users trading event contracts against other market participants.
Another major difference is the ability to exit a position before an event is finished. If the probability of your Ravens vs. Falcons position increases during the game, you can sell the contract rather than waiting for the final result.
Why trade Ravens vs Falcons at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers several features that distinguish prediction markets from traditional pro football betting:
- Live flexibility: Contracts can be bought and sold as market probabilities change throughout the game.
- Probability-based pricing: Markets display the estimated likelihood of an outcome rather than traditional American odds.
- Transparency: Prices are driven by trading activity between market participants.
- Federal regulation: Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
