This prime-time showdown is for the birds, and tonight's Ravens vs. Falcons prediction is that the visitors will cover the 3.5-point spread despite the market's growing love for the Atlanta Falcons.
With Lamar Jackson sidelined and the spread swinging heavily toward the Falcons, I'm trusting the Baltimore Ravens to keep things close at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday Night Football.
Find out why I'm fading the Atlanta hype in my latest NFL picks for Week 5, with kickoff set for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
TOP Pick
Ravens vs Falcons prediction: Ravens +3.5
Lamar Jackson’s ankle injury and the Atlanta Falcons’ surging stock have swung this spread from a look-ahead of Baltimore Ravens -6 to Atlanta -3.5.
Baltimore sends QB2 Tyler Huntley into the fray, riding a steady second-half effort in Week 4.
Huntley is a downgrade from Jackson but can move the chains with his arms and legs. It also helps to have burly running back Derrick Henry to lean on, placing Huntley in manageable down and distance.
Baltimore also presents the best defense the Falcons have faced, sitting just outside the Top 10 in many sexy metrics through its first four games under Jesse Minter.
The Falcons have feasted on soft stop units and will be playing on a short week after Monday’s win.
COVERS INTEL: Atlanta’s rushing attack could be missing a major key with left tackle Jake Matthews dealing with a groin injury. The Falcons run left on 61% of handoffs (fourth-highest), and the LT position is hurting with Matthews and backup Michael Jerrell on the injury report.
Ravens vs Falcons combo
Falcons fever is spreading after two national-stage wins. But beating up on a busted Packers team on a short week and bullying the Saints' shoddy defense isn’t winning me over.
Baltimore has been without Lamar before, and this defense is a prideful group that shows up on SNF.
Drake London hasn’t scored a touchdown in 2026, but with Baltimore stacking the box to slow down Robinson & Robinson, London could slip out for a score. Some models put his TD probability as high as 52%.
Mark Andrews is always busy when Huntley takes over under center. The veteran TE sees his targets tick up, and all projections call for 30+ receiving yards against Atlanta.
Ravens vs Falcons combo
- Ravens +3.5
- Drake London anytime touchdown
- Mark Andrews 25+ receiving yards
Ravens vs Falcons touchdown scorer: Drake London
The Ravens will sell out to stop the run and put the game on Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. In his two games back from injury, Penix has had eyes only for WR Drake London.
He’s been targeted 16 times in the past two outings. However, London hasn't caught a red-zone pass yet and is still hunting for his first touchdown of the season.
Baltimore has been burned by some big-name WRs, allowing guys like CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Chris Olave to ball out.
London’s Week 5 projections are positive, including his touchdown forecasts. Most models give Atlanta's WR1 a 50%+ chance of finally finding the end zone.
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Ravens vs Falcons player prop: Mark Andrews 25+ receiving yards
Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews is to Tyler Huntley what big fluffy sweaters are to women each October. Pure comfort baby.
Backup QBs usually lean on TEs for quick hits and checkdowns and that’s been the case for Huntley during his two stints in Charm City.
He threw to his tight ends 16 times over two starts last year and looked to TEs a lot whenever called into action for the Ravens in 2021 and 2022.
Andrews boast the fifth highest target share (23.5%) across the position entering Week 5 and has posted 24, 27, 49 and 49 yards in the opening four games of 2026.
His SNF forecasts all sit north of 30 receiving yards with some models flirting to 40 yards from the veteran.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 8-4, +3.13 units
- Combos: 0-12, -12.0 units
Ravens vs Falcons odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Ravens +3.5 | Falcons -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (52%) | Under 43.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Ravens 39% | Falcons 62%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Ravens vs Falcons weather
It will be a lovely climate-controlled night inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 5.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Ravens vs Falcons trend to know
The Ravens are 6-11 SU without Lamar Jackson but 8-9 ATS in those games. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Falcons.
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How to watch Ravens vs Falcons
| Location | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Ravens vs Falcons latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
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