The Baltimore Ravens visit the Atlanta Falcons on NBC's Sunday Night Football, with kickoff set for 8:20 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Oct. 11.
With Lamar Jackson sidelined, my Ravens vs. Falcons moneyline pick backs Atlanta at a 64% Kalshi probability.
Find out more in my NFL picks for Week 5.
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Ravens vs. Falcons moneyline odds and pick
Ravens
Falcons — Pick Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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The case for the Ravens moneyline
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley is starting for an injured Lamar Jackson, and backups replacing their team’s Week 1 starter are 6-1 straight up and 6-0-1 against the spread in their first starts this season.
Huntley played well enough as Lamar’s replacement in eight games in 2022 to earn a Pro Bowl selection. He’s one of the league’s better backups and has a future Hall of Fame running back in Derrick Henry and a Pro Bowl receiver in Zay Flowers to help him out.
The case for the Falcons moneyline
Lamar is hurt, and the Atlanta Falcons have beaten the brakes off both opponents since Michael Penix Jr. made his season debut. Penix has a solid offensive line, a top-three running back in football, and a true No. 1 receiver in Drake London.
The Falcons also rank fourth in net early-down EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com. Early-down efficiency is one of the most predictive metrics in football because the entire playbook remains available.
Ravens vs. Falcons moneyline pick & confidence level
My model makes Atlanta a half-point worse than Baltimore on a neutral field, and I’m downgrading the Ravens by at least 5.0 points without Jackson.
With a 1.5-point boost for home-field advantage, the Falcons should be at least 5-point favorites here.
Pick: Falcons 64%
Confidence: 🟢 Standard
COVERS INTEL: According to ESPN, Atlanta ranks third in pass-rush win rate, while Baltimore is 20th in pass-block win rate.Game overview
Date: Sunday, Oct. 10
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
TV: NBC
Broadcast Team: Mike Tirico & Chris Collinsworth
What are prediction markets?
A prediction market allows you to buy and sell shares on the outcome of a future event. Prediction markets are exchange-traded markets. Most prediction market apps allow users to "buy an outcome" for between 1 cent and $1.
The $1.00 rule: The foundation of prediction markets
The difference between sportsbook and prediction market pricing isn't actually that difficult. In fact, you can make a compelling case that American odds are more challenging for beginners to understand than prediction markets and their $1.00 foundation.
Unlike a traditional bet where you wager a specific amount to win a profit, NFL prediction markets operate on a binary contract system.
- The Winning Side: Always settles at $1.00
- The Losing Side: Always settles at $0.00
The price of a "Yes" contract is directly related to the aggregate belief about the probability that the event will occur. For example, if a contract for the Chicago Bears to beat the Detroit Lions is trading at $0.51, the market believes they have a 51% chance of victory.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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