We swept the board last week, and Sunday offers plenty of bad defenses for us to pick on in my Week 6 Over/Under picks.
I'm targeting a buy-low opportunity in the Saints vs. Giants matchup, and potential scoreboard assaults in Las Vegas and Green Bay.
Let’s keep these winning NFL picks rolling.
NFL Week 6 Over/Under picks
NO vs 
NYG
BUF vs 
LV
DAL vs 
GBPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 6 NFL Over/Under picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
Saints vs Giants: Over 45.5
This looks like a great buy-low spot after the New Orleans Saints faced a Vikings defense allowing the fewest points per game in the NFL. Before that snoozefest, three of the Saints’ first four games cleared 60 combined points.
Statistically, both offenses have reasons to get excited. NOLA ranks in the top 6 on third down and in red-zone touchdown percentage, two areas where the New York Giants’ defense has struggled.
Keeping drives alive and finishing them should be considerably easier this week.
Meanwhile, New York has scored 63 points over its last two games and faces a Saints defense sitting 31st in scoring and 26th in yards per play allowed. There’s plenty of generosity to go around.
Bills vs Raiders: Over 53.5
The Buffalo Bills are 4-1 to the Over this season, with their games averaging 61 combined points — second only to Detroit.
The Las Vegas Raiders have allowed 34 points per game over their last three. Let’s not sugarcoat it: They’re totally screwed against a Bills offense tied for first in scoring and leading the NFL in yards per play and explosive play rate.
Buffalo should do the heavy lifting, but Las Vegas can contribute. The Raiders scored 27 points in each of their two home games and face a Bills defense that has allowed 29+ points in four of five outings.
Don’t overthink this.
Cowboys vs Packers: Over 52.5
Speaking of Overs, not to “over…think”...
The Dallas Cowboys produced nine consecutive road Overs, with those games averaging 58.1 combined points.
The Cowboys offense can go shot for shot with anyone (except Jalon Daniels), but their defense is an embarrassment, ranking dead last in yards per play allowed and opponent third-down conversion percentage.
The Green Bay Packers are moving in the right direction offensively after dropping 31 points on the Bears last week. Jordan Love is typically a slow starter, but he might be starting to turn it on.
As for the Packers’ defense, it ranks 25th on third down and 31st in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed. Don’t forget this unit is only a few weeks removed from surrendering 35 points and 498 yards to Atlanta on its own field.
Expect Dallas to actually finish plenty of drives this week, with its defense giving Green Bay’s punter’s family no reason to tune in.
Week 6 Over/Under combo
Saints vs. Giants Over 45.5
Bills vs. Raiders Over 53.5
Cowboys vs. Packers Over 52.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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