Sunday brings us a battle of two division leaders as the Seattle Seahawks visit Orchard Park and the Buffalo Bills in Week 9 NFL action. Both teams are coming off big Week 8 wins versus divisional opponents, while the two non-conference clubs have not played each other since November 2016.
The Seahawks opened as 2.5-point favorites, and Bills find themselves as home underdogs for the second time this year. This number is shaded towards the three and might be a "buy early" candidate if you like the Hawks. The total opened as high as 53 and remains steady across the board early in the week.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Seahawks vs. Bills on November 8 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills betting preview
Weather
Bills Stadium will be a little nicer on Sunday compared to last week. Clear skies and temperatures in the mid-60s are expected with a light wind (5 mph). Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Seahawks: Shaq Griffin CB (Out), Chris Carson RB (Out), Bruce Irvin LB (Out), Ugo Amadi S (Out), Carlos Hyde RB (Out), Mike Iupati G (Out), Benson Mayowa DE (Out).
Bills: Josh Norman CB (Out), Mitch Morse C (Out), Matt Milano LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Seahawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games versus a team with a winning record.
Find more NFL betting trends for Seahawks vs. Bills.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Seahawks own the league’s worst defense, but they held their own last week against the 49ers, limiting them to seven points over the first three quarters. This same 49ers team dismantled the Patriots 33-6 in Week 7. This is pertinent info as New England took the Bills down to the wire last week, with Buffalo needing a Cam Newton fumble in that last seconds to pull off the three-point victory, 24-21.
A date with DK Metcalf and Russell Wilson is bad timing for a Buffalo secondary that is dealing with injuries to two of its starters. The Seattle passing attack is unlike any other in the league. Metcalf’s four-inch and 40-pound advantage over Buffalo CB Tre'Davious White is a huge edge that will likely be heavily exploited as Seattle’s running game is lacking talented runners due to injury. The Seahawks got back to their ATS winning ways last week, and we like them to keep it going against a Bills team that hasn’t covered in four straight games.
PREDICTION: Seattle -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under pick
Seattle needed a lot of garbage-time points to hit the Over last week, but the win moves them to 5-2 O/U on the season. They have the league’s worst pass defense, allowing over 350 yards a game, and are bleeding 28.4 points a game. It’s a good thing their offense leads the league in yards per play (6.6), a number that jumps to 7.0 on the road. This could mean trouble for a Buffalo defense that’s allowing the sixth-most yards per play at home (6.2).
The injuries to Seattle’s running backs should keep Wilson in pass mode as the league’s MVP front-runner is coming off a four-TD performance against the 49ers, who had the No. 8 DVOA defense ahead of last week’s game. Josh Allen and Buffalo can also sling it offensively as they are 3-1 O/U at home this year and scoring over 26 points per game at Bills Stadium.
We will be monitoring the weather all week before locking in our bet, as Buffalo weather can be a graveyard for early-week Overs. That said, the early reports look great weather-wise.
PREDICTION: Over 54 (-110)
Second Half Total Prop Pick
Buffalo has not been able to hold down the fort defensively late in games this year, allowing the league’s fifth-highest points against in the second half at 15 (17.8 at home). Last week, a terrible New England offense scored 15 2H points in bad conditions and should have tacked on a couple more. The Bills have not held an opponent scoreless in the third or fourth quarter at home this year, including a game against the Jets.
Not surprisingly, Seattle ranks first in the league in second-half points scored per game at 18.9, and if Buffalo can hang in this game, the second half could be wide open. Second-half lines aren’t usually released at the beginning of the week, but with a total of 53 and a first-half total of 26.5, that looks like a 2H total of 26.5 as well.
PREDICTION: Second half Over 26.5 (-110)
Seahawks vs Bills betting card
- Seattle -2.5 (-115)
- Over 54 (-110)
- Second half Over 26.5 (-110)
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