NFL Championship Sunday has arrived with the Kansas City Chiefs dueling the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers hosting the upstart Detroit Lions. They say defense wins championships, and all four of these teams have some terrific defensive players to consider when it comes to props on the NFL odds board.
I'm betting on a pair of Pro Bowlers to get a sack on Sunday, with Baltimore's Justin Madubuike facing a banged-up Chiefs line and Detroit's Aidan Hutchinson going up against a struggling right tackle. Here are my best free sack and tackle NFL picks for the AFC and NFC Conference Championship on January 28.
This week’s best sack and tackle props
- Justin Madubuike Over 0.25 sacks (+154 at FanDuel) 50% live boost available
- Aidan Hutchinson Over 0.75 sacks (-110 at DraftKings) 30% boost available
- Justin Reid Over 3.5 solo tackles (-150 at DraftKings) 30% boost available
- Arik Armstead Over 2.5 tackles (-115 at bet365)
Picks made on January 27 at 4 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of our sack picks and our tackle props
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Best Conference Championship sack picks
Chiefs vs Ravens: Justin Madubuike
Patrick Mahomes has been sacked just 1.5 times per game this season and hasn't been taken down once in either of the Kansas City Chiefs playoff contests. That said, I don't like the chances of staying upright on Sunday, especially with Baltimore Ravens defensive tackle Justin Madubuike bearing down on him.
The Chiefs will be missing Pro Bowl guard Joe Thuney, and backup Nick Allegretti is a massive downgrade on the interior of the line. Baltimore also has the kind of defense that gets sacks while rarely blitzing, which can be Mahomes' kryptonite. Mahomes a master of picking apart the blitz, but when a defense can generate pressure with their front and drop extra players into coverage, he has a tougher time finding an open receiver.
That could mean the Chiefs QB sticking around in the pocket for an extra half a second, which is all someone like Madubuike needs. The Ravens DT is having a breakout season and leads all interior linemen with 13 sacks. Madubuike has at least half a sack in 13 of 18 games this season, and with wet field conditions on Sunday, Mahomes won't be able to roll out as easily as he usually does when the pocket collapses.
Justin Madubuike Prop: Over 0.25 sacks (+154 at FanDuel) 50% live boost available
Lions vs 49ers: Aidan Hutchinson
Detroit Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson has been on fire, notching at least a sack in four-straight games and totaling eight sacks over that span. Hutchinson was priced at -175 to go Over 0.75 sacks last week against the Bucs and he's surprisingly installed at -110 this week despite having an easier matchup. The Lions DE will be lining up across from San Francisco 49ers right tackle Colton McKivitz, who has surrendered nine sacks this season.
Hutchinson consistently generates pressure and finished the regular season with the fifth-highest pass-rush grade (91.2) among edge defenders according to Pro Football Focus. Meanwhile, McKivitz was 51st among 57 qualifying tackles with a pass block grade of just 56.4. The Niners will likely double-team or chip Hutchinson, but that's been happening all season and hasn't stopped Hutch from wreaking havoc.
Aidan Hutchinson Prop: Over 0.75 sacks (-110 at DraftKings) 30% boost available
Best Conference Championship sack picks
Chiefs vs Ravens: Justin Reid
Chiefs safety Justin Reid is coming off a monster game against the Bills where he racked up 11 tackles, including eight solo stops. The O/U for Reid's solo tackles is set at just 3.5, and even with the Over juiced to -150, there's value considering how often he has hit this mark and the likely game script for Sunday.
Reid has racked up at least four solo tackles in seven of his last nine contests and he's averaging 5.8 solo tackles per game during that span. One of the few games during that stretch where he went below that number was in the Wild Card round against Miami, where the Dolphins ran the ball just 18 times.
The Ravens average a league-high 32.4 rush attempts per game and might lean on the ground game even more on Sunday, with rain expected in the forecast. With plenty of carries from the Ravens and Reid just as comfortable in run support as he is at patrolling deep, take the Over on his solo tackles.
Justin Reid Prop: Over 3.5 solo tackles (-150 at DraftKings) 30% boost available
Lions vs 49ers: Arik Armstead
San Francisco DT Arik Armstead has been hampered by injuries this season, but when healthy, he's posted an elite defensive grade of 81.9 per PFF.
Armstead has recorded at least three total tackles in six of his last seven games, with the only contest during that span where he fell below that number being the game he exited early due to a knee injury.
With the Lions running many of their plays up the middle, Armstead will get plenty of opportunities to make tackles. He'll also face a banged-up interior O-line, with Detroit missing left guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow playing at less than 100%.
Arik Armstead Prop: Over 2.5 tackles (-115 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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How are sack and tackle props calculated?
It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sportsbook. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will count as the player recording a sack.
Books often have props for solo tackles, assists, and tackles which are made up of both solo tackles and assisted.
Best strategies to bet sack and tackle props
There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size, and does he consistently generate pressure. A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.
Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.
It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or allowing him to get easier matchups. Improved play in the secondary can also lead to coverage sacks.
Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks.
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