The first Sunday Night Football game of the 2024 NFL season just so happens to be the same matchup that ended the Los Angeles Rams’ 2023 campaign. Sean McVay and L.A. face a familiar foe when they come to Ford Field to play the Detroit Lions in Week 1.
Detroit squeaked by with a 24-23 win in that game and our Rams vs. Lions predictions expect Dan Campbell's squad to be on the right side once more. Read my early NFL picks and leans for Sunday Night Football below.
Rams vs Lions predictions
Earl spread lean
Lions -3 (-128 at bet365)
My analysis
I’m hesitant to downgrade Sean McVay and his pregame prep, especially early into the season. During his storied career, the Los Angeles Rams head coach is one of the more solid bets in the opening weeks of the season and he knows this Detroit Lions team better than most opponents.
With that said, McVay enters 2024 without a tentpole of his tenure in Los Angeles: Aaron Donald.
The star pass rusher is retired and that leaves a massive gap in this defense. Donald’s mere presence up front was a boost to those around him and now that X-factor is gone, leaving a suspect stop unit (which also just traded captain LB Ernest Jones) to face one of the most potent attacks in the NFL.
Detroit can hurt you in several ways and with celebrated offensive coordinator Ben Johnson back for another year, the Lions are primed to repeat — and improve — last year’s output which ranked Top 7 in both “Holy Grail” analytics, EPA per play and offensive DVOA.
The Lions also made a focused effort to patch any holes in their defense, specifically the secondary, which was the team’s biggest weakness. Detroit was 25th in EPA allowed per dropback when these teams clashed last winter, watching Matthew Stafford throw for 357 yards in the Wild Card. That pass defense will be much improved in 2024.
Last year’s closing spread of Detroit -3 also had a red-hot Rams’ run baked into it, with L.A. entering the postseason on a four-game tear and a winner in six of its final seven games (that lone loss coming in OT). That momentum isn’t there this time around.
Given Ford Field is one of the rare venues that warrants an adjustment for home field, this 3-point spread says these teams would be relatively even on a neutral site — and that’s just not the case. Detroit is the better offense, the better defense, and one of the best home bets in the NFL under Dan Campbell (19-8 ATS since 2021).
Early Over/Under lean
Over 51 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
We’ve mentioned the Lions’ potent scoring attack and the Rams’ ramshackle defense, which will see Detroit pick up where it left off last year when it averaged 29.9 points per homestand. The Rams offense isn’t too shabby, either.
L.A. enters Week 1 with all its top weapons on the field. Stafford survived training camp and will have studs at receiver in Puka Nacua and the returning Cooper Kupp. The Rams also have a new run scheme to maximize the output from fantasy football darling Kyren Williams and rookie Blake Corum.
McVay’s playcalling tries to balance the pass/run usage, but when trailing the L.A. coach skews heavily to a quicker-paced passing attack. Given the spread and questions on defense, the Rams will likely be playing from behind on Sunday night which means plenty of passing from Stafford in the second half.
These teams went Under a closing total of 53 points in the playoff game, with the 24-23 final score well below that closing total. However, Los Angeles went 0-for-3 in the red zone and after combining for 38 points in the first half, the Rams and Lions produced just three collective field goals in the final 30 minutes.
Add on that this game is indoors on the fast track of Ford Field and I’m leaning toward the Over, which has been a hot bet in the Motor City. The Lions have gone Over in 65% of their home games under coach Campbell.
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Rams vs Lions live odds
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