Rams vs Chiefs Week 12 Picks and Predictions: More Magic from Mahomes

Kansas City is clicking on all cylinders while Los Angeles's Super Bowl hangover season continues. With Matthew Stafford listed out, read why Patrick Mahomes should be in for a big day in our Rams vs. Chiefs betting picks.

Last Updated: Nov 27, 2022 8:36 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
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Week 12 features a non-conference matchup between the 3-7 Los Angeles Rams and 8-2 Kansas City Chiefs.  

Los Angeles is hoping to end a four-game losing streak, while Kansas City has won four straight, including a Week 11 victory over the Chargers. 

Who will win this non-conference matchup? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Rams vs. Chiefs on November 27. 

Rams vs Chiefs best odds

Rams vs Chiefs picks and predictions

The Rams' rushing defense is stout, and Patrick Mahomes will likely have to win this game with his arm. Mahomes has been his usual brilliant self this season, leading the league in passing yards and touchdowns. The Chiefs signal-caller has thrown three or more TD passes in six of his 10 contests and three of his last four. 

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce caught four of his league-leading 11 receiving TDs over his past two games, and his connection with Mahomes could be historic. The two have teamed up for 46 scoring strikes since 2018, and we should expect to see Kelce find the end zone at least once on Sunday. 

Chiefs wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster returns from a one-game absence, and Mahomes will be happy to have his second-leading target and big-play threat back in the lineup. 

Los Angeles allowed 260 yards and three TDs last week to Andy Dalton and the Saints, and I expect Mahomes to have the same success at home against a Rams defense that's currently allowing 232 passing yards and 1.4 TD receptions per contest.

The Rams' offense have several key players either banged up or out and will have difficulty moving the ball without Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and a true running game. New Orleans held the ball for 31 minutes last week, and if the same situation occurs this time around, Kansas City and Mahomes will pepper the Rams' secondary.

Take Mahomes to throw Over 2.5 TD passes.

My best bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 touchdown passes (+150)

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Rams vs Chiefs spread analysis

The Chiefs are -15.5 point home favorites, and I’m leaning towards Kansas City covering the number.

Rams QB John Wolford makes his second start of the season Sunday, and he posted 212 passing yards with a TD and an interception. He made the injury report this week with a neck injury but is probable for this matchup. 

Los Angeles has a good defense, but it's allowed 27 points or more in three of its past five games and five points more than its season average. Sunday, the Rams face a daunting task against the best offense in the league, as Mahomes and Co. are scoring 20 points or more in each of their last five games.

Los Angeles has had a difficult time covering the spread this season. The Rams are 2-7-1 against the spread overall and 1-2-1 ATS as the away team. 

Rams vs Chiefs Over/Under analysis

The total is 42 points at most shops, and I am leaning Over for this matchup. 

The running game for each side isn’t setting the world on fire, and we’ll likely witness an aerial show. The Chiefs' passing defense is lousy, as they allow the second-most TD receptions in the league. Wolford is at least competent enough to burn the Kansas City secondary a couple of times. 

Neither side has a positive turnover margin. The Rams are 30th, while Kansas City is 26th in the NFL. The Rams are 28th in takeaways, and Kansas City comes in at 22nd in the league with one takeaway per contest. 

The Over is 5-5 through the Chiefs' first 10 games, and I like it to surpass .500 by the end of  Sunday. 

Rams vs Chiefs betting trend to know

The Chiefs are 5-0-1 ATS over their last six meetings with the Rams. Find more NFL betting trends for Rams vs. Chiefs.

Rams vs Chiefs game info

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Date: Sunday, November 27, 2022
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Chiefs -14, 44.5 O/U

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