Time flies when we’re having fun. The NFL schedule is already four weeks old, and those Week 4 odds are on the move.
A big part of turning an NFL trading profit is staying ahead of the market moves and giving yourself the best number to back up your opinion. I help you do just that each week.
Here are my favorite NFL picks to make now and some you’ll want to come back to later in Week 4.
NFL predictions: Week 4 trade now, trade later picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Trade Now or Trade Later |  |
|---|---|---|
| Bills -6.5 | Now | 53% |
| Bengals -2.5 | Later | 49% |
| Falcons at Saints Over 47.5 | Now | 52% |
| Cowboys at Texans Under 47.5 | Later | 50% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Patriots at Bills -6.5: Trade Now
Divisional rivalries deserve some respect, but I think we’ve seen enough of the New England Patriots to downgrade the reigning AFC champs.
Drake Maye is killing drives with turnovers and the Patriots’ offensive line is a mess, allowing its quarterback to feel pressure at the seventh highest rate. The Buffalo Bills defense is getting a good four-man rush, leading to nine sacks.
Buffalo won a sloppy game in Week 3, leaving room for improvement from Josh Allen and the offense. Given the public perception and early moves across the industry, you’ll want to get the home side short of a touchdown while you can.
Jaguars at Bengals -2.5: Trade Later
It looked like another classic Joe Burrow comeback was cued for the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3. But the Bengals fumbled away a potential game-winning drive and find themselves short of a field-goal favorite in Week 4.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, on the other hand, planted their flag in the AFC ecosystem. Jacksonville dominated New England with a stellar two-way performance in Week 3, and we’re seeing market moves toward the road team in this matchup.
If you like the Bengals to bounce back at home, wait and see how short this spread lands. Burrow is a big step up in QB competition for the Jaguars defense, which has picked on questionable passers in Drake Maye, Bo Nix, and Deshaun Watson.
Cincinnati poses a true deep-ball threat that will test the Jacksonville secondary. Despite those opposing quarterbacks, the Jags allowed the fourth-highest average depth of target and the ninth-most air yards.
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Falcons at Saints Over 47.5: Trade Now
Michael Penix Jr.’s return under center helped spark the Atlanta Falcons’ offense, complementing a strong rushing attack with a competent passing game — at least compared to the first two weeks.
Atlanta hung 35 points on Green Bay last Thursday and now has extra time to prep and get Penix Jr. clicking before a Monday matchup in the Big Easy.
The New Orleans Saints lost a shootout with Las Vegas in Week 3, blowing away the closing total of 43.5 O/U. Tyler Shough is throwing at the fifth-highest rate (and might have to pass more with injuries at RB), and the Falcons pass defense has allowed the fourth-most yards per game.
Openers of 47.5 are drying up and pushing upward, getting on the other side of the key number of 48 points. This is a fast indoor track at the Superdome and prime-time totals tend to tick up, so take the Over now if you see plenty of points.
Cowboys at Texans Under 47.5: Trade Later
The Houston Texans are a desperate team staring down a big goose egg in the win column heading into this Texas-sized non-conference clash with the Dallas Cowboys.
After a bumpy start, Houston’s defense has shown up the past two games. The Texans are a Top 10 stop unit in EPA allowed and opponent success rate in that stretch, but the offense can’t support them. The Texans are 28th in EPA per play in the past two weeks.
The Cowboys travel back from Brazil with a terrible taste in their mouths for what will be their third away game in four weeks. Dallas barfed up a last-second loss to Baltimore, and that shootout is pushing this total to the key number of 48 O/U.
If more Over money shows, books will move quickly to 48.5 and beyond, as the next notable stop is 51 points. Any positive updates around Texans WR1 Nico Collins could be that push.
If you like the Under, hold out and see if you can buy back a bigger number.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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