Give yourself a gift this holiday season. Get the best of the number to back up your Week 17 NFL picks.
Whether it’s for spreads or totals, you can stuff your stocking with closing line value – if you know when to get your bets down.
Sometimes that means snatching up the opening odds, or it can come later in the week, buying back the market movement.
Here, I highlight my favorite “Bet Now, Bet Later” lines for my NFL picks in Week 17.
NFL predictions: Week 17 bet now, bet later picks
- Lions (-5.5) at Vikings: Bet Now
- Eagles (+2.5) at Bills: Bet Later
- Cardinals at Bengals (Over 51.5): Bet Now
- Cowboys at Commanders (Under 50.5): Bet Later
Detroit Lions (-5.5) at Minnesota Vikings: Bet Now
The Minnesota Vikings have a QB question on Christmas Day, with starter J.J. McCarthy leaving Week 16’s win over the Giants with a throwing hand injury. Minnesota is slated for one of the December 25 games, leaving a very small window for “Nine” to heal up.
His X-rays were negative, but the first-year starter couldn't hold a football. And it’s not just McCarthy hurting heading into the holiday. Center Ryan Kelly and running back Jordan Mason are also dealing with ailments.
The Detroit Lions, on the other hand, pissed away a Week 16 home game to the Steelers, putting their postseason chances in dire jeopardy. Detroit needs help from the other NFC contenders to qualify for the tournament and can’t afford another loss.
This spread opened Lions -5.5 at Minnesota, and the vig on that spread is climbing, indicating a potential move to the key number of -6. If McCarthy is officially ruled out, this could trend toward a touchdown.
If you like the Lions, get them now.
Best odds to bet Lions -5.5 right now
Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills: Bet Later
Look-ahead lines had the Buffalo Bills listed as field-goal favorites in this marquee matchup, but Josh Allen’s foot injury forced bookies to come in just shy of the key number.
Allen’s X-rays were clear, and he says he’s fine, which should calm the nerves of Buffalo backers heading into Week 17.
The Philadelphia Eagles enter with a little extra rest after playing on Saturday and seem to have sorted out their offensive foibles, thanks to some softer defensive opponents the past two weeks.
The return of this vaunted rushing game is the key for anyone taking the points with Philly. Saquon Barkley rolled for 132 yards on the ground versus Washington and now faces a Buffalo run stop ranked in the bottom 5.
Also sweetening the pot for the Eagles are the potential returns of their two best players: DT Jalen Carter and OT Lane Johnson.
Sharper books are already showing Bills -3, and the majority of mainstream operators have pumped up the vig on Buffalo -2.5. If you like Philadelphia in Week 17, wait for that +3.
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Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 51.5): Bet Now
There will be Costco-sized scoring in this non-consequential non-conference contest.
We have two quarterbacks who aren’t afraid to let it fly and two defenses already planning their flights to Cancun in two weeks. The Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals rank No. 1 and No. 2 in passing play percentage and also rank 31st and 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback.
Cincinnati is surging with Joe Burrow back and having “fun” playing football, passing for 300 yards and four touchdowns in a Week 16 squash of the Dolphins.
These pass defenses sit near the bottom of most metrics, including allowing a surplus of explosive plays. Arizona enters Week 17 with injuries at all three levels of the defense.
This total opened at 51.5, and that number is still available on Sunday night, but things are moving quickly. Some books are already up to 53 points. FYI: Extended forecast for Paycor Stadium looks warm with some moderate winds.
Best odds to bet Over 51.5 right now
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders (Under 50.5): Bet Later
Ah, the classic Xmas Day tradition of turning on Netflix to watch the NFL.
If you’re not excited about this lame-duck NFC East matchup, just think how thrilled the players are to be playing on the holiday – and for nothing.
With the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders both eliminated, motivation is a major question in these closing games. However, bookies and bettors believe there will be plenty of points coming down the chimney on Dec. 25.
This total opened as low as 49.5 O/U and jumped to 50.5 with early play on the Over. If you’re not sold on that move, wait and see if this total hits the key number of 51 before buying back the Under.
Yes, both of these defenses are god-awful and combined for almost 840 yards against, 63 points allowed, and folded for a collective 55 first downs against their Week 16 opponents, but Washington QB Marcus Mariota is dealing with a hand injury on a short week, and the Cowboys offense ventures outdoors for the first time since Week 8.
For his career, Dak Prescott sees significant splits between indoor and outdoor games, with his yards per attempt slumping from an average of over eight to less than seven yards in open-air venues.
Conditions in D.C. don’t look terrible for Xmas Day (with temperatures in the low 50s), but there is a threat of rain for Northwest Stadium.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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