We’ve officially hit the home stretch of the NFL season as the calendar flips to December.
There are plenty of factors pushing and pulling on the odds as we make our NFL Week 14 picks.
Lines will move quick between now and kickoff, so getting the best number for your bets can be a race against time. I help you get a head start, highlighting the spreads and totals to bet now and also circling some you may want to check out later.
Here are my NFL picks and “Bet Now, Bet Later” lines for Week 14.
NFL predictions: Week 14 bet now, bet later picks
- Seahawks (-7.5) at Falcons: Bet Now
- Cowboys at Lions (-3.5): Bet Later
- Texans at Chiefs (Under 43.5): Bet Now
- Team at Packers (Over 45.5): Bet Later
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at Atlanta Falcons: Bet Now
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a weirdo loss to the Jets in Week 13 and take a major step up in competition when the Seattle Seahawks roll into the ATL this Sunday.
Atlanta has played some softer foes in recent weeks, facing New York, New Orleans, and Carolina. Now, the Falcons take on one of the best two-way teams in the league.
Seattle feasted on the Vikings’ shaky QB situation this weekend, creating a ton of chaos in the pocket and upping its stock as the premier stop unit in the land. That vaunted pass rush will be chasing down the aging legs of Kirk Cousins in Week 14.
The Seahawks opened with the half-point hook on the touchdown, which may scare some off. However, -8 is an undervalued key number in football betting these days, and this spread could quickly move to -8.5 or -9 considering the contrast in public opinion.
Best odds to bet Seahawks -7.5 right now
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3.5): Bet Later
The Detroit Lions opened -3.5, and some books have already slimmed to a field goal for Thursday Night Football. If you like the Lions, there are a few reasons why this spread could shrink even further by kickoff.
For one, mid-week underdogs have barked loudly this season, as we saw with the Packers putting it to Detroit on Thanksgiving Thursday. That’s another reason why this line could slide toward the Dallas Cowboys. The Lions just haven’t looked right the past three games.
The Cowboys, on the other hand, are very appealing in the eyes of bettors after beating up on both Super Bowl teams in back-to-back weeks. Dallas has won three in a row, and there’s no shortage of support, especially in prime time.
The Lions’ offensive line is a mess, and Frank Ragnow isn’t coming to the rescue. Receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown could also miss Thursday Night Football after leaving the loss to Green Bay with an ankle injury.
If you’re on Dallas, get that half-point hook and bail. But if you believe Dan Campbell can rally his troops, wait it out and see if this spread comes off the field goal.
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Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (Under 43.5): Bet Now
The Houston Texans are dashing up the AFC standings on a four-game winning streak, thanks in large part to their defense.
Houston has held its last three foes to 19 points or less, including the Colts in Week 13. The Texans know this Andy Reid offense all too well after losing 23-14 to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round last January, despite checking Patrick Mahomes & Co. to just 212 total yards.
As for the Houston offense, it has to come outside in the cold – not C.J. Stroud’s favorite setting – with Arrowhead Stadium expected to “feel like” 12 degrees for Sunday Night Football.
The Chiefs’ scoring has sputtered, too, with a lack of explosive plays and the offense stalling out in the red zone. Kansas City put up some points indoors against a shoddy Dallas defense, but Houston is a different beast.
I’m betting the Under 43.5 now with some sportsbooks already sliding below the key number, and this total will likely drop closer to 41 once weather reports make the rounds.
Best odds to bet Under 43.5 right now
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (Over 45.5): Bet Later
I can hear John Facenda in my head now. “The frozen tundra of Lambeau Field”.
This classic NFC North rivalry gets some classic Wisconsin weather in Week 14, with the extended forecast looking mighty cold. Temperatures are expected to be around 16 degrees, which should get a ton of media hype and drive this Over/Under number down.
The current total sits at 45.5 – a very malleable number between the key stops of 44 and 47. Bookies can be more aggressive and drop this total to 44 points when Under money hits.
While cold does impact scoring output, the rest of the extended forecast looks clean. No wind, rain, or snow is expected to show for this 4:25 p.m. ET start.
The Chicago Bears don’t want to get into a defensive grinder and are a Top 3 offense in EPA since Week 9. The Green Bay Packers are no slouches either. Green Bay rides a three-game winning streak with the No. 1 EPA offense since Week 11.
I’m going to wait on this total to drop, make sure nothing funky happens with the weather, then pounce on the Over if we see this total tumble to 44 points.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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