NFL Red Zone just celebrated its 300th episode this past Sunday.
The game-to-game-to-game-to-game broadcast is a staple for many football fans, my household included.
In fact, my kids have never known a world without Red Zone. That brings me joy.
They especially get jacked up for the weekly “Witching Hour” — so much so that if they’re not in the room, I have to pause the broadcast and call out to them just so they can hear Scott Hanson say, “When wins become losses and losses become wins”.
To their credit, the “Witching Hour” has been extra witchy this season. We’re seeing a surge in one-score games to start 2026, with the league’s average margin of victory sitting at just 9.9 points, the second-lowest in NFL history. That, in turn, has created plenty of opportunities for NFL underdog picks.
Entering Week 7, point spread pups are covering at a 56.5% clip, including a 37-22-2 ATS record since Week 3 (65%). I’ve enjoyed that windfall as well, going 6-3 ATS with my featured NFL picks.
With Halloween approaching, here’s to hoping the “Witching Hour” keeps things close for those teams getting the points — or at least for my three underdog picks for Week 7.
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 9-9 ATS
NFL Week 7 underdog picks
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Buccaneers +3.5 at Panthers
There’s an old Swedish proverb that says, "Luck never gives; it only lends".
In the case of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, luck also borrows.
The Bucs sit second-to-last in the infamous “Luck Ratings”, getting the shit-end of the high-variance stick so far this season.
Tampa Bay’s 1-5 record is especially tough to swallow considering all five defeats have been by seven points or less, with an average margin of -3.2 heading into Week 7. That includes a heartbreaking collapse and OT loss to Pittsburgh last weekend.
However, the Buccaneers’ luck could change this Sunday. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is making progress in his return from a thumb injury. He was back on the practice field ahead of Sunday’s road clash with the Carolina Panthers.
Another less-Swedish proverb is “defense travels”.
That’s a good thing for Tampa, considering its stop unit has quietly crept up the defensive metrics and sits Top 10 in sexy stats like EPA allowed, opponent success rate, and Defensive DVOA.
The Panthers’ three wins have come against teams either starting a backup QB (Atlanta), fielding a dreadful defense (Detroit), or both (Philadelphia).
This is a massive matchup for Todd Bowles’ job security, and the half-point hook on the field goal seems too much for a divisional rivalry.
49ers at Falcons +3.5
The Atlanta Falcons got to touch the football for less than 20 minutes in Sunday’s loss to Chicago.
And yet, Atlanta was threatening to cover as a home dog in the fourth quarter. The Falcons’ follies dug an early hole and kept killing any momentum, namely two turnovers on punt returns. However, in its limited time of possession, Atlanta picked up 5.1 yards per play and finished 3-for-3 in the red zone.
The Falcons have been a Top-10 offensive attack since Michael Penix Jr. returned and stay home in Week 7, welcoming the undefeated San Francisco 49ers. But before you chalk up another win for the Niners, consider this California club is traveling on a short week after playing Monday and facing a 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT).
As solid as San Francisco has been on both sides of the ball, there are injuries to key contributors on offense and defense. And for what it’s worth, this will be just San Francisco’s second true road game of the season, with the first being a short trip to Seattle.
At first glance, this looks like a battle between Atlanta’s elite rushing attack and San Francisco’s stingy run defense. However, while the 49ers rank among the league’s best in yards allowed per carry and EPA allowed per handoff, they sit just 29th in opponent rushing success rate.
That means the Falcons can get back to dominating the football with a methodical ground game that chips away at a “bend but don’t break” 49ers defense. I expect Atlanta to own time of possession and limit the Niners’ time on offense.
Bengals +1.5 at Ravens
As of this writing, it doesn’t look like the Baltimore Ravens will have Lamar Jackson back for Week 7.
That leaves backup Tyler Huntley under center for a third straight week, facing a Cincinnati Bengals defense that will sell out to stop the run and force Huntley to hurt them through the air.
The Bengals' pass rush is a quiet killer, generating the fifth-highest pressure rate in the league and recording 17 sacks in five games despite blitzing at the second-lowest rate. That frees up the Cincy linebackers to focus fire on Derrick Henry.
If Joe Burrow and this explosive offense can get up on the Ravens, then Baltimore will have to abandon the run.
The Ravens' pass defense hasn’t faced a QB as good as Burrow since Dak Prescott, and as Jason La Canfora points out, Baltimore’s corners have allowed a 94.4 passer rating despite facing quarterbacks with a combined rating of just 86.0.
Burrow doesn’t need any help looking better than he is, currently ranked near the top in several key QB measurements. The last time he faced Jesse Minter’s defense, he passed for 356 yards and three touchdowns versus the L.A. Chargers in 2024.
Week 7 underdog combo
Buccaneers +3.5
Falcons +3.5
Bengals +1.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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