The NFL may be cracking down on smelling salts, but Week 12 is the perfect time for bettors to take a big whiff and wake up from the annual mid-season sleepwalk.
This stretch between Halloween and Thanksgiving is one of the toughest times for your NFL picks.
The excitement of a new season is long gone, the intrigue of the playoff race is still at a crawl, and with more than half the schedule in the rearview, we get a little numb to the week-to-week pace of pro football.
The dreary November days blend together (is it Week 11 or Week 12?), and we can slip into some lazy habits, putting faith into early-season stats or trends that may no longer hold up.
The theme song for this four-week window should be Janet Jackson’s 1986 hit, “What Have You Done for Me Lately.” Hit a hard refresh on what you think you know about the NFL in 2025 and focus on recent results.
I attack the Week 12 odds with fresh eyes, giving you my best underdog NFL picks and predictions.
Last week: 2-0-1 ATS
Season: 19-13-1 ATS (+3.91 units)
NFL Week 12 predictions and picks
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Colts +3.5
Steelers +3
Buccaneers +6.5
Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Best bet: Colts +3.5
(-114 at FanDuel )
When you have a legacy like the Kansas City Chiefs, you get the benefit of the doubt even when you probably shouldn’t.
That’s the reason we have 30-plus Nicolas Cage movies you’ve never heard of over the past dozen years. It’s why we have thousands of versions and colorways of the Air Jordan 1. And it’s why Mariah Carey still packs them in at the Park MGM in Las Vegas.
Bookmakers are giving Patrick Mahomes & Co. the benefit of the doubt with this Week 12 spread. Kansas City has lost two straight to quality foes in Buffalo and Denver and is now laying -3.5 against the 8-2 Indianapolis Colts this Sunday.
When we run down KC’s resume, it’s short of impressive wins. The Chiefs did score a victory over Detroit at home in Week 6 – it’s lone W against a winning football team. Could all those deep playoff runs finally be catching up to Kansas City?
Indianapolis is fresh and focused after the bye week. The Colts’ ground game is the key to putting a nail in KC’s coffin. Running back Jonathan Taylor is on an MVP track, powering the NFL’s top rushing attack in all the sexy analytics.
Buffalo grinded out gains on the ground against Kansas City and dominated the football for more than 34 minutes in Week 9, setting the blueprint for Indy. The Colts can play “keep-away” in an effort to help their defense limit Mahomes’ time on the field.
And speaking of the defense, coordinator Lou Anarumo has plenty of experience planning for Andy Reid’s attack. He faced the Chiefs six times as the Cincinnati DC (with far less talent), including a playoff win at Arrowhead in 2022.
The Chiefs may be in “must-win” mode, but I’ll take the hook on the strong dog while it lasts.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) at Chicago Bears
Best bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +3
(-108 at FanDuel)
The Pittsburgh Steelers went from +2.5 to +3 at the Chicago Bears, with Aaron Rodgers’ left wrist injury forcing a market move to the key number of a field goal. It’s an adjustment that has me grabbing the points with Pittsburgh.
If he’s out, long-time backup Mason Rudolph is under center in Week 12. And like a blind taste test between “Bull’s Eye” and 90% of other BBQ sauces, you may not be able to tell the difference at QB.
Rudolph put in work once Rodgers went down in Week 11’s win over Cincinnati, finishing 12-for-16 passing with 127 yards and a touchdown, and didn’t bail out when pressure mounted.
This Steelers playbook could be perfect for him, with two viable passing-catch running backs, a trio of big-bodied tight ends, and a tall target in DK Metcalf. It also helps that Pittsburgh is playing a Chicago defense that sits in the bottom third of the league.
The Bears continue playing with fire, owning a 7-3 SU record despite an average MoV of -0.6 points. All but one of those seven victories have come in one-score games, with five decided by five points or less. Regression is catching the L Train to Soldier Field this Sunday.
Pittsburgh’s defense can give Chicago a taste of its own medicine in Week 12. The Bears have thrived on takeaways to keep the team afloat, which has been the Steelers’ specialty for years. Mike Tomlin’s unit has looked much stronger the past three games, sitting No. 6 in EPA per play while collecting eight takeaways and 11 sacks.
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has faced the 10th-highest pressure rate per dropback, leads the league in hurries suffered (48), and ranks fourth in pressured throws. His 44.7% completion rate under duress is 33rd among all QBs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Best bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5
(-102 at FanDuel)
The Los Angeles Rams were very lucky to escape with a win over the rival Seahawks in Week 11.
Los Angeles picked off Sam Darnold four times yet managed only 21 points, 12 first downs, and just over 22 minutes with the football despite those extra possessions. The defense caved for more than 400 yards and 26 first downs, dodging a 61-yard bullet in the dying seconds.
In most universes, Seattle wins that game and L.A.’s Week 12 spread looks a little different – likely coming out below the key number of six.
Los Angeles’ defense was on the field for almost 38 minutes last Sunday, and we’ve seen this stop unit soften a bit in recent games, especially against the pass. The Rams have given up more than 600 yards through the air on 75% completions in the past two outings.
Now they take on a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that can score with the best of them – even when it’s not at full strength. The Bucs may have some big guns back with RB Bucky Irving and WR Chris Godwin picking up more practice reps in hopes of avoiding a three-game slide.
As for the Tampa defense, it continues to shut the door on opposing rushing attacks. It checked the Bills’ No. 1 run game to only 97 yards, and 40 of those came from QB Josh Allen, which should throw a wrench in Sean McVay’s play-action plans.
This game is lining up to be a shootout (I already bet the Over 49), and I like Tampa to stay inside of a touchdown on Sunday Night Football.
My NFL Underdogs column is 19-13-1 this season for +3.91 units.
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