It was an incredibly chaotic week in the football world as we had eight underdogs win outright in Week 5.
Will the trend continue this week? Only time will tell, but what I can tell you now is I'm not trusting the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football.
Find out why as I break down my favorite Week 6 NFL picks against the spread.
Week 6 NFL picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Eagles vs  Giants |
(-7.5) |
 Broncos vs Jets |
(+7) |
 Browns vs  Steelers |
(-5.5) |
 Chargers vs  Dolphins |
(+4.5) |
 Patriots vs  Saints |
(+3.5) |
 Seahawks vs  Jaguars |
(-1.5) |
 Cardinals vs  Colts |
(-6.5) |
 Rams vs  Ravens |
(-7.5) |
 Cowboys vs  Panthers |
(-3.5) |
 Titans vs  Raiders |
(+5.5) |
 49ers vs  Buccaneers |
(-3) |
 Bengals vs  Packers |
(+14.5) |
 Lions vs  Chiefs |
(+2.5) |
 Bills vs Falcons |
(+4.5) |
 Bears vs  Commanders |
(-4.5) |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 10-7.
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Expert Week 6 NFL ATS picks
Eagles vs Giants: Eagles (-7.5)
The Philadelphia Eagles suffered their first loss of the season, and a case could be made they were jobbed out of the win. Now they get to face a New York Giants team that came crashing back down to earth after the Jaxson Dart bump in Week 4. I'll lay the points with the better team from top to bottom.
Broncos vs Jets: (Jets +7)
This game is taking place in London, and maybe that'll be the change the Jets need to get off the schneid. More importantly, I'm betting on a Broncos letdown after their big win vs. the Eagles on Sunday.
Browns vs Steelers: Steelers (-5.5)
The Browns are in for a world of hurt here. They lost at Detroit in Week 4, blew a lead in Week 5 against the Vikings in London, and now are on the road in Pittsburgh after trading Joe Flacco. Not even Myles Garrett's heroics can overcome low morale in the Dawg Pound.
Chargers vs Dolphins: Dolphins (+4.5)
I know the Dolphins are not a very good team, but this is more so a play against the Chargers. They were shut out for the final three quarters vs. the Commanders, and lost Omarion Hampton in the process. His status is up in the air, but a cross-country flight for an early start won't help. Dolphins keep it close.
Patriots vs Saints: Saints (+3.5)
This is a major letdown spot for the Patriots coming off that Sunday Night Football win vs. a division rival as 8.5-point underdogs. Now they hit the road for the lowly Saints, who showed they can put up points given the right situation. With the hook, I'm in on the Saints.
Seahawks vs Jaguars: Jaguars (-1.5)
The Jaguars' giving up 28 points to the Chiefs is concerning, but not as concerning as the Seahawks' giving up 38 to the Bucs.
Cardinals vs Colts: Colts (-6.5)
The Arizona Cardinals are done. They had every chance to move to 3-2 before blowing it. A cross-country trip won't help vs. a Colts team that's rolling right now.
Rams vs Ravens: Rams (-7.5)
Every part of my being wants to pick the Ravens +7.5, but this is a team that looks like they've simply quit. Puka Nacua could have a massive game, and the Rams will probably roll.
Cowboys vs Panthers: Cowboys (-3.5)
The Dallas Cowboys can score points. The Carolina Panthers struggle to do so. You need to score to win, and the Cowboys will do enough here to get the cover.
Titans vs Raiders: Titans (+5.5)
The Titans pulled off the miraculous win and cover last week vs. the Cardinals, and I like them to do the same vs. a Raiders side that's one of the biggest disappointments so far through five weeks.
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49ers vs Buccaneers: Buccaneers (-3)
The 49ers have to be one of the luckiest teams in the NFL after battling the injury bug and still going 4-1 through five games. Sadly for them, I think they drop this game to a high-powered Bucs offense that's scoring points for fun.
Bengals vs Packers: Bengals (+14.5)
This one stinks, but the Green Bay Packers are one of the more inconsistent teams, as you never know which team is going to show up on both sides of the ball. Nobody wants to back the Bengals and the newly acquired Joe Flacco, but maybe this is the bump they need.
Lions vs Chiefs: Lions (+2.5)
Welp, this line screams trap and fishy, but I'm in. The Lions are an absolute wagon right now, and with an extra day of rest and prep, I have no concerns about them playing at Arrowhead.
Bills vs Falcons: Falcons (+4.5)
I didn't really like what the Buffalo Bills' defense looked like vs. the Patriots on Sunday Night. Now they have to hit the road to take on an explosive Falcons offense, led by Bijan Robinson. I'll take the 4.5 points here before it comes crashing down at kick-off.
Bears vs Commanders: Commanders (-4.5)
I do not want to pick the Bears. Neither should you.
My NFL ATS record is 42-36 this season for +2.7 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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