The New England Patriots and Denver Broncos meet at Empower Field at Mile High for an NFL playoff game on Sunday afternoon with a trip to the Super Bowl at stake.
If you're looking to make Patriots vs. Broncos predictions and don't have access to a sportsbook, then prediction markets like Kalshi are for you!
From spreads and totals to player props, there's a whole slew of NFL picks to be made at Kalshi.
Patriots vs Broncos predictions
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Patriots to win | Trade at Kalshi |
| Patriots -4.5 — NO | Trade at Kalshi |
| Over 42.5 — NO | Trade at Kalshi |
| RJ Harvey to score a TD | Trade at Kalshi |
| Rhamondre Stevenson to score a TD | Trade at Kalshi |
Who will win Patriots vs Broncos at prediction markets?
Our prediction: Patriots to win
Jason Logan believes the Patriots will beat the Broncos handily.
"The Broncos are in a bad spot against a very good Patriots defense. While the home side may keep it closer than the point spread indicates, New England would be my lean to win outright, especially considering its 8-0 SU record on the road."
See more of Jason's analysis in his Patriots vs. Broncos predictions.
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Patriots vs Broncos props at prediction markets
Beyond the winner of the game, there are several other markets available for Patriots vs. Broncos at Kalshi, including the spread, total, and team total for the game, plus player touchdown props and quarterback passing markets.
Explain how you can buy either side of a market — for example, "Yes" on New England -4.5 means the Patriots will cover, while "No" on New England -4.5 means the Broncos will cover — with each side priced based on the implied probability (which can be converted to American, Decimal, or Fraction odds using the Covers odds converter)
Patriots vs Broncos spread and total at prediction markets
| Outcome | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots -4.5 | 53¢ (-102) | 49¢ (-120) |
| Over 42.5 | 48¢ (-118) | 53¢ (-104) |
Our predictions: Patriots -4.5 (NO) and Over 42.5 (NO)
With New England boasting a far better defense, our Patriots vs. Broncos predictions still believe that Denver will keep this much closer than many may believe.
"If you read my “NFL Underdogs” column, you’ll see I took Denver +5.5. This spread is trending down toward Patriots -4.5 at most books, with some positive injury updates for the Broncos' receivers, running backs, and offensive line.
I’d still lean Broncos +4.5, especially since that spread span (-4 to -4.5) is tricky for favorites. Chalk between -4 and -4.5 is just 4-15 ATS this season, and 45% going back to 2021. Those faves win (62% SU) but don't seem to cover."
There are also alternate spreads and totals to consider at Kalshi.
Patriots vs Broncos touchdown props at prediction markets
| Player | Anytime TD | First TD |
|---|---|---|
 RJ Harvey |
41¢ (+115) | 13¢ (+650) |
 Rhamondre Stevenson |
44¢ (+125) | 13¢ (+600) |
| Hunter Henry |
32¢ (+175) | 9¢ (+850) |
| Stefon Diggs |
31¢ (+200) | 9¢ (+900) |
| TreVeyon Henderson |
30¢ (+230) | 7¢ (+1300) |
| Jaleel McLaughlin |
23¢ (+260) | 7¢ (+1200) |
| Courtland Sutton |
26¢ (+280) | 7¢ (+1500) |
| Kayshon Boutte |
24¢ (+290) | 7¢ (+1300) |
Our predictions: Hunter Henry and Broncos defense
Jason Ence's Patriots vs. Broncos anytime touchdown picks believe that Hunter Henry will likely be a focal point of attack for the New England Patriots.
"Hunter Henry is Drake Maye’s go-to target in the red zone, with his 22 targets inside the 20 being bested on the season by only five other players. Five of those targets have led to touchdowns, and he’s found the endzone in three of his last five games.
Denver is going to blitz Maye early and often, giving Henry one-on-one matchups. I like him to win one of them near the goal line as Maye turns to his safety valve under pressure."
Don't forget to check out Kalshi's first TD and multi TD props!
Other Patriots vs Broncos props available at prediction markets
What is Kalshi and how does it work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where you trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, you trade "Event Contracts" which are simple Yes/No questions like "Will the Eagles win this Sunday?" These events are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the prices reflect the market’s estimated probability of that event occurring. For instance, $0.55 equals a 55% chance. If your prediction is correct, the contract pays out exactly $1.00; if not, it settles at $0. Kalshi is essentially a stock market for reality.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
In a sportsbook, you bet against the bookmaker, who sets fixed odds and takes a "vig," which is a kind of commission. On Kalshi, you trade against other users. This peer-to-peer model means prices are driven by supply and demand, often resulting in fairer odds. Additionally, because these are financial derivatives, you can exit your position early. If your team takes a 14-point lead, the contract price will rise, allowing you to sell your "Yes" shares for a profit before the final whistle even blows.
Why should I wager on Patriots vs Broncos at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
