The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots are both just 60 minutes away from playing in the Super Bowl.
It’s going to be quite cold when the two teams meet Sunday at Empower Field at Mile High, and these offenses may find it difficult to put up points with how well both teams defend.
My Patriots vs. Broncos anytime touchdown picks try to find value on the board for this January 25 matchup.
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Patriots anytime touchdown pick
Hunter Henry (+175 at FanDuel)
The Denver Broncos have had problems dealing with tight ends all season long. They've allowed the ninth-most yards and 11th-most catches to the position group, and they’ve allowed six touchdowns.
Dalton Kincaid burned them for 83 yards and a TD on six catches last week, and Hunter Henry will likely be a focal point of attack for the New England Patriots.
Henry is Drake Maye’s go-to target in the red zone, with his 22 targets inside the 20 being bested on the season by only five other players. Five of those targets have led to touchdowns, and he’s found the endzone in three of his last five games.
Denver is going to blitz Maye early and often, giving Henry one-on-one matchups. I like him to win one of them near the goal line as Maye turns to his safety valve under pressure.
Broncos anytime touchdown pick
Broncos defense (+650 at FanDuel)
Denver has a quarterback who hasn’t thrown an NFL pass in over two years, and a running game that hasn’t been the most productive. So it’s difficult to pick an offensive touchdown scorer against a New England defense that has allowed just eight rushing scores all season.
That’s why I’m looking at the defensive side of the ball. This is the same defense that forced Josh Allen and the Bills into five turnovers a week ago, and now faces a quarterback in Maye who has been turnover prone.
Maye led the NFL this season with 14 fumbles, six of which he’s lost. The Broncos led the NFL in sacks by quite a bit, and Maye’s taken 10 of them in the past two games.
Add in the fact he’s much worse against man coverage this season than against zone, and there’s a high likelihood Maye forces a pass or coughs it up on a sack in a spot where the Broncos can turn it into six points.
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