Patrick Mahomes Odds and Props for Week 5: More Mahomes Magic

With the nation and many more Taylor Swift-related incremental eyes on them last week, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs managed to just barely squeak out a 23-20 win over the struggling Jets. It was yet another subpar performance from Mahomes, completing just 18-of-30 passes for just 203 yards while tossing two interceptions and only adding one passing touchdown to his box score. 

In NFL Week 5 odds, they will face off against the struggling Vikings, another presumed lopsided matchup and a much more porous defense for Mahomes and company to get right against. The NFL odds tab them as -3.5 road favorites witht he the total sitting at 53.

Can the two-time MVP and Super Bowl winner get things back on track or is another pedestrian performance on the way?

Continue reading for free Patrick Mahomes odds, and be sure to check out our NFL picks page and Chiefs vs. Vikings predictions for Sunday, October 8th.

Patrick Mahomes Week 5 prop picks

• Over 2.5 passing TDs
• Over 2.5 passing TDs + Under 0.5 interceptions + Over 23.5 rushing yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Patrick Mahomes Week 5 prop pick

Over 2.5 passing TDs (+135)

Regardless of whether you think the Minnesota Vikings have the potential and talent to be a good defense, there is one undeniable fact: they love to blitz the quarterback. Their blitz rate of 57% not only leads the NFL, but they are the only team north of 50%.

And that funnily enough bodes extremely well for Mahomes' outlook on Sunday through the air. Mahomes (for the analytically-inclined) has been notorious excellent against blitzes throughout his career, including this year (fifth in EPA/dropback against blitzes):

Quarterback efficiency vs the blitz (y-axis) and vs non-blitzes (x-axis) this season. Probably wouldn't be a great idea for Brian Flores to blitz Mahomes too often this week given that he's averaging a 0.35 EPA/play and a 48% success rate against blitzes this year pic.twitter.com/WMYgikD7yb

— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) October 3, 2023

In last year's Super Bowl the Eagles blitzed Mahomes on 33% of his dropbacks, the second-highest blitz rate they registered in all of their games last year (both regular season and playoffs). Mahomes went on to complete 78% of his passes, throw for three touchdowns, and avoid getting sacked that night.

And it wasn't just that one night or just the start of this season either. Courtesy of CBS's Douglas Clawson, Mahomes has 55 touchdown passes and just six interceptions against the blitz, and his EPA per play doubles the next-best mark ever since becoming the Chiefs' full-time starter.

Prop: Over 2.5 passing TDs (+135 at DraftKings)

Patrick Mahomes Week 5 same-game parlay

Mahomes Over 2.5 passing TDs

Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions

Mahomes Over 23.5 rushing yards

+525 at bet365

Piggybacking off that last note about Mahomes' stellar touchdown-to-interception rate against the blitz, it would make a lot of sense to toss in his under 0.5 interceptions thrown prop into a same-game parlay.

Given the Vikings' defensive philosophy of blitzing relentlessly, quarterbacks have graciously taken the short to intermediate layup throws. Outside of Justin Herbert in Week 3 who decided to put up a career performance, the proof is in the pudding: Baker Mayfield ranked 15th in air yards in Week 1; Jalen Hurts 26th in Week 2; and Bryce Young 31st in Week 4.

If we don't anticipate Mahomes (who has gotten comfortable taking the shorter throws in the last year) to really let it fly, then the likelihood of an interception plummets.

For the final leg, we're going back to a well we've drawn from all season during this spotlight series: Mahomes' rushing yards. The market has, to its credit, finally adjusted after another week of Mahomes comfortably beating this prop.

This prop through Week 4 only floated between 16.5-18.5 yards, and this week it is now at 24.5. Yet despite the adjustment, this prop is still set too low. Mahomes has eclipsed 24.5 rushing yards in all four games this far, and he will continue to do so regularly as long as his receiving talent outside of Travis Kelce remains to be collectively below the league average.

Mahomes is notably one of the league's best at extending plays, but those play extensions will continue to result in rushing yards for Mahomes if his receivers continue to fail to get open during those play extensions.

Expect a big game from Mahomes through and through and across the entire box score.

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