Welcome back, college football. This game could ultimately play a huge role in the Big 12 standings as both the Iowa State Cyclones and the Kansas State Wildcats are genuine contenders to win the most competitive conference in the country.
My Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions and college football picks lean toward chaos before kickoff at noon ET on Saturday, August 23.
Iowa State vs Kansas State predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Iowa State vs Kansas State spread pick: Iowa State +3.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Kansas State is widely considered the best team in the Big 12, more than four points better in ESPN’s SP+ rankings than defending champion Arizona State, despite the Sun Devils returning almost all of their roster from a year ago.
Those numbers put a lot of faith in the Wildcats' reloading along the offensive line as they have for all of Chris Klieman’s six years in Manhattan.
One problem with that: Klieman’s 11 previous offensive lines were all coached by Conor Riley, who is now working on the Dallas Cowboys’ offensive line. That is not exactly ideal timing as Kansas State returns only two O-line starters.
Iowa State’s defense slipped a touch last season, as much as a defense can slip when it is still ranked No. 18 in the country in terms of expected points added per snap (a measure of a play’s effectiveness when factoring in down, distance, field position, score, time, etc.).
The Cyclones gave up too many sustained drives, and that weakness showed in their two final losses, giving up 45 points in each.
Injuries were the biggest culprit. Iowa State is healthy now, and this defense should wreak havoc against Kansas State’s new offensive line.
If this game were in two months, that line may have more cohesion, but without Riley’s guidance, it should be too much of an ask.
Early Iowa State vs Kansas State total pick: Under 49.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Do not overthink this.
Offenses need reps to develop timing in the passing game. Both Iowa State and Kansas State may return star quarterbacks in Rocco Becht and Avery Johnson, respectively, but between the two of them, only one notable receiver returns.
Furthermore, the oddity of playing in Dublin stands out. A six-hour time change is certainly not ideal. It may be as much as 40 degrees colder at kickoff in Ireland than it has been of late in midwestern farm country.
And both veteran coaches are likely to take the first half to assess the opponent and sniff for any offseason schematic changes before getting aggressive in the second half.
Those factors have assuredly all played a role in three of the last four games played in Dublin going Under their totals and by an average of 8.67 points in those three games.
Iowa State vs Kansas State odds
- Iowa State vs. Kansas State spread: Kansas State -3.5
- Iowa State vs. Kansas State moneyline: Iowa State +128, Kansas State -152
- Iowa State vs. Kansas State Over/Under: 49.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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