We've assembled our Lions vs. Bills top picks for the Week 2 edition of Thursday Night Football!
See why our Lions vs. Bills predictions and NFL picks are targeting the Over, and don't miss kickoff from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
Lions vs Bills predictions
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Bills moneyline |
68% |
| Bills -4.5 |
52% |
 / Over 53.5 |
52% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs 30+ receiving yards — Yes |
49% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime TD |
43% |
| D.J. Moore anytime TD |
35% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Lions vs Bills?
The Buffalo Bills are home favorites over the Detroit Lions tonight, and Trevor Knapp is backing the favorite in his NFL Week 2 moneyline picks.
Our prediction: Bills to win — Yes (68%)
"Buffalo’s offense is coming off a 400+ yard performance against Houston’s elite stop unit, and now Josh Allen gets to tear into a Lions defense that remains without star safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph. Expect the Bills to make a statement in their new digs."
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Lions vs Bills spread prediction
Our prediction: Bills -4.5 — Yes (52%)
Chris Vasile is also on the Bills in his NFL Week 2 picks against the spread.
"Buffalo put up 36 points and nearly eight yards per play against a very good Houston defense in Week 1. I don't think Detroit is going to offer nearly as much resistance."
Lions vs Bills total prediction
Our prediction: Over 53.5 — Yes (52%)
Joe Osborne's top Lions vs. Bills prediction is the Over despite a lofty total.
"These offenses combined for 67 points in Week 1, and there’s plenty of reason to expect another shootout. The Buffalo Bills dropped 36 on Houston’s formidable defense behind a ridiculous 7.9 yards per play, while the Detroit Lions scored 31 despite taking their foot off the gas after building a 21-0 lead midway through the third quarter."
More Lions vs Bills picks from Covers
Lions vs Bills player props
Receiving prop: Jahmyr Gibbs 30+ receiving yards — Yes (49%)
Jason Logan has Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs on his radar, but not in the rushing department.
"Gibbs will be a checkdown option when the Bills turn up the heat. Goff won’t always have time for deeper plays to develop, and Gibbs is the perfect release valve."
For more prop looks, check out Logan's full Lions vs. Bills player props.
Lions anytime touchdown prop: Amon-Ra St. Brown — Yes (43%)
Kyle LaRusic is looking at a pair of wide receivers in his Lions vs. Bills touchdown picks for TNF, starting with Amon-Ra St. Brown.
"Amon-Ra St. Brown was put to work in the Detroit Lions' Week 1 win over the Saints, catching 10 of a team-high 14 targets and scoring two touchdowns. As a slot receiver, he can be a security blanket for Goff, and his high target volume is a big reason I always love backing him to score."
Bills anytime touchdown prop: D.J. Moore — Yes (35%)
LaRusic is also calling for D.J. Moore to break the plane.
"Moore racked up 100 yards on a team-high eight targets, including a touchdown in Week 1, and now he faces a Lions' secondary that got cooked for nearly 400 yards."
Lions vs Bills live markets explained
Kalshi's event contracts can be bought and sold as the Lions vs. Bills game unfolds, meaning traders aren't locked into their pregame positions.
The probabilities will move throughout the game as the score, time remaining, possession, and game state change.
How do Lions vs Bills prediction markets work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where users trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, users trade event contracts based on simple Yes/No questions such as "Will the Lions beats the Bills?"
Contract prices reflect the market's estimated probability of an outcome. A contract trading at 23%, for example, indicates that the market is assigning that outcome roughly a 23% chance of occurring. If the prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1; if it is incorrect, it settles at $0.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
At a traditional sportsbook, bettors wager against prices established by the bookmaker. Kalshi instead operates as an exchange, with users trading event contracts against other market participants.
Another major difference is the ability to exit a position before an event is finished. If the probability of your Lions vs. Bills position increases during the game, you can sell the contract rather than waiting for the final result.
Why trade Lions vs Bills at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers several features that distinguish prediction markets from traditional pro football betting:
- Live flexibility: Contracts can be bought and sold as market probabilities change throughout the game.
- Probability-based pricing: Markets display the estimated likelihood of an outcome rather than traditional American odds.
- Transparency: Prices are driven by trading activity between market participants.
- Federal regulation: Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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