While it might be difficult to drum up enthusiasm for a bout between 0-3 teams, there are still plenty of betting options in the New York Jets-Miami Dolphins AFC East bout at Hard Rock Stadium on Monday, September 29.
My early Jets vs. Dolphins predictions and NFL picks are calling for Miami to grab its first win of the season, with both teams continuing to play poorly on defense to help the total go Over the number on Monday Night Football.
Jets vs Dolphins predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early MNF spread pick: Dolphins -2.5
This is an extended mini bye for the Miami Dolphins after losing 31-21 and hanging around with the Buffalo Bills for the majority of Thursday Night Football in Week 3.
The Miami offense has also been a different attack at Hard Rock Stadium with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa behind center. He’s thrown for a solid 7.75 yards per attempt and 69.7 completion percentage while going 27-9 at home during his career, and he’s also beaten the New York Jets in all six career starts.
New York has also struggled defensively to start the season, with the fifth-highest EPA per play allowed while ranking 26th in defensive DVOA and 27th in PFF defense grade.
Obviously, the Miami defense has been as bad as any team in the league, but I’m not convinced the Jets can put up enough points to cover the number — regardless of whether it’s Justin Fields (concussion) or backup QB Tyrod Taylor under center in this AFC East showdown between 0-3 teams.
Early MNF total pick: Over 44.5
The total has gone Over the number in four of six games the Jets and Dolphins have played this season, and as noted, both defenses have been brutal to start the season.
In addition to the highlighted New York stop unit struggles, Miami has allowed the highest EPA per play while ranking 31st in defensive DVOA and 32nd in PFF defense grade.
Again, I expect Tagovailoa to play well, and he has weapons in the passing and running game to give the Gang Green defense all it can handle.
Additionally, New York has had offensive success with a respectable 23.0 points per game. The total has also gone Over the number in three of the past four meetings between the two teams, and the Jets have also hit the Over in eight of their past 10.
Jets vs Dolphins odds
- Jets vs. Dolphins spread: Dolphins -2.5
- Jets vs. Dolphins moneyline: Jets +120, Dolphins -150
- Jets vs. Dolphins Over/Under: 43.5
How to watch Jets vs Dolphins
- Jets vs. Dolphins matchup
- Date: Monday, September 29, 2025, 7:15 p.m. ET
- City: Miami
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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