Giants vs Eagles Divisional Round Picks and Predictions: Big Blue Exploited by Goedert

New York successfully muted Justin Jefferson last week and now turns its attention to AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. That threat will allow Dallas Goedert to shine underneath — our Giants vs. Eagles NFL picks have more.

Last Updated: Jan 21, 2023 5:06 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

The New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles cap a season-long trilogy in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs on Saturday night.

The top-seed Eagles take on their NFC East rival for the third time on the year and the second time in three weeks, after beating the Giants 22-16 in Week 18 but falling well short of the closing 17-point spread. 

That regular-season finale was a meaningless matchup for New York and the stakes are much higher now, with the G-Men coming off a road win in Minnesota last weekend. That has the NFL Divisional Round odds teetering on a touchdown as we get closer to kickoff Saturday night.

I run down the spread and Over/Under total for this NFC postseason battle and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Giants at Eagles on January 21.

You can also find more great bets in our Giants vs. Eagles player prop picks, and be sure to check out our Saquon Barkley spotlight props as well!

Giants vs Eagles best odds

Giants vs Eagles picks and predictions

One of the keys to the Giants’ victory over the Vikings was their approach to Minnesota star receiver Justin Jefferson.

New York did a great job limiting Jefferson’s big plays (only 47 yards), but the real X-factor was having a healthy secondary, with corner Adoree’ Jackson and safety Xavier McKinney back in the lineup after missing time due to injury at the end of the season.

The focus now swings to Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who also beat up New York’s secondary in their past two matchups. That has us looking at Jalen Hurts’ other favorite target: tight end Dallas Goedert

While the Giants secondary put the clamps on Jefferson and the Vikes’ WRs, tight end T.J. Hockenson balled out last weekend. He caught 10 of 11 targets for 129 yards in the loss and took advantage of a New York defense that has struggled to slow tight ends all season.

The Giants allow the 10th most yards to TEs on the year and sit 31st in defensive DVOA versus the position at Football Outsiders, allowing an average of 56.1 yards on 6.4 targets to rival tight ends per game. 

Goedert, who missed the Week 14 matchup with New York due to injury, had six catches on seven targets for 46 yards in the win over the G-Men in Week 18 and has gone Over his receiving yards prop in each of his last three games since returning to the lineup — two of those games with backup Gardiner Minshew under center.

“We know how important it is to get him the football,” Eagles coach Nick Sirianni told the media about Goedert. “I can already say we’re going to see how efficient Dallas is. The different things that he’s good at will reflect itself, and we have a good idea of what those things are, but that’s coming up in the process. We look forward to getting to that.”

Goedert is third on the team in targets with 69 despite playing only 12 games and features in over 62% of offensive snaps for the Eagles. He averages 58.5 receiving yards on 4.6 catches per game and is not only a popular pass option for Hurts but a monster when it comes to yards after the catch, ranking out No. 14 in YAC in the NFC (438) despite his limited work.

Goedert is especially valuable given the matchup and situation for Hurts, facing a very aggressive Giants defense that brings blitz at a league-high and generates the seventh-highest pressure rate per dropback. He’s valuable as a quick release when pressure closes in and if Hurts’ shoulder limits his ability to push the ball deep, Goedert is a prime target in short to intermediate routes.

My best bet: Dallas Goedert Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110)

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Giants vs Eagles spread analysis

Following the Giants’ Wild Card win, oddsmakers opened the Eagles as 7.5-point home favorites for the Divisional Round. Early opinions showed up on New York, first puffing up the vig on the G-Men +7.5 and eventually trimming the half-point hook off the spread to Philadelphia -7.

That stand didn’t stick around long, as action on the Eagles as expensive touchdown favorites quickly ushered the spread back to its original opener of Philly -7.5.

The Week 18 meeting between these teams is a tough situation to take any info from. New York didn’t have any stake in the game and started its second-string quarterback, while the Eagles were in a must-win situation to secure the No. 1 seed in the conference.

Jalen Hurts played in that final outing despite fighting a shoulder sprain that cost him the two games prior. Hurts looked limited, with both his accuracy and arm strength visibly declined. He is expected to start in the Divisional Round and told the media he’s feeling much better after the Eagles enjoyed a bye in the opening round of the playoffs and is expected to fully participate in practice this week.

That uncertainty around Hurts and quality play from the Giants has kept this spread tethered to the touchdown. New York finished the schedule strong, going 2-2 SU but 4-0 ATS (while Philadelphia failed to cover in its final four games) and looked very sharp on both sides of the ball in the win over the Vikings on Sunday.

These NFC East rivals first played back in Week 14, with Philadelphia thumping New York 48-22 in East Rutherford as 7.5-point road chalk. The Eagles jumped out to a 21-0 lead midway through the second quarter, leaving a run-heavy Giants attack to abandon the ground game in order to catch up. Philly’s pass rush took full advantage of the situation and blasted New York’s QBs for seven sacks and checked them to only 4.6 yards per pass. 

If New York is going to cover and have a chance to upset the Eagles, it has to keep the game within striking distance and can’t allow Philadelphia to come out firing and build a bigger lead early on. Unfortunately, the G-Men rank out 28th in first-quarter defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and 24th in 1Q points allowed on the season (4.7).

According to DraftKings Sportsbooks, early splits show 70% of the bet count on New York while 62% of handle is riding with the underdog. Covers Consensus shows 68% of picks on the Giants as of Wednesday morning.

Giants vs Eagles Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under total opened as low as 46.5 points on Sunday and has slowly climbed with money showing up on the Over. 

This total has ticked up to as high as 48.5 points, but we are seeing some 48-point totals on the board. DraftKings books are reporting 75% of bet count and 86% of the money coming in on the Over.

Philadelphia has been among the best offensive attacks in the NFL this season, especially when Hurts is healthy and at the helm. The Eagles were No. 2 in EPA per play in the first 15 weeks of action, before Hurts’ shoulder injury, with the bulk of damage coming from a rushing attack that ranked No. 1 in EPA per handoff and DVOA. 

New York’s defensive scheme relies heavily on the blitz and man-to-man coverage and ranked dead last in defensive DVOA versus the running game. The Giants average 5.2 yards allowed per carry to opposing rushers and while they’ve improved on that run stop in recent weeks, Philadelphia has a bevy of ball carriers to keep up that ground-and-pound approach. 

The Eagles are also susceptible to the run but do a much better job hiding it thanks to the offensive’s explosive starts. Opponents are often playing from behind versus Philadelphia, which means more passing plays and abandoning the run game. But when foes are able to stick to the rushing attack, they find an Eagles run defense that sits 21st in both DVOA and EPA allowed per handoff.

New York runs a very efficient offense that wrapped the regular season No. 9 in EPA per play. Quarterback Daniel Jones is blossoming as a passer and is always a threat to run for yardage when plays break down. He’s coming off a monster effort against Minnesota, throwing for 301 yards and two touchdowns while adding another 78 yards rushing. That said, Philadelphia is a much tougher test on defense than the Vikings. 

The total for their Week 14 matchup in East Rutherford closed with an Over/Under of 44.5 points. The Eagles eclipsed that number on their own, putting up 48 points in the blowout win. The teams finished a collective six for eight in the red zone in that game, and both rank Top 7 in touchdown percentage inside the 20-yard line.

Check out my NFL Divisional Round picks and predictions for even more in-depth analysis.

Giants vs Eagles Divisional Round same-game parlay

Dallas Goedert Over 47.5 receiving yards

Jalen Hurts Over 50.5 rushing yards

Saquon Barkley Over 69.5 rushing yards

Goedert smacks the G-Men for plenty of YAC in the passing game. And even with Hurts hurting, getting his rushing yards total this low is a joke. When the chips are down, Jalen’s running. Barkley will have a successful day on the ground against a Philly run stop that has allowed big gains in the past four games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Giants vs Eagles betting trend to know

Since 2014, in playoff matchups between divisional foes the underdog is 5-8 SU but 9-3-1 ATS (73%) in the third meeting of the season. That includes a 0-3 SU mark but a 2-1 ATS count in divisional rivalries from this past Wild Card Weekend. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Eagles.

Giants vs Eagles game info

Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Date: Saturday, January 21, 2023
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Eagles -7.5, 46.5

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