The New York Giants will look for a second straight playoff upset when they visit the Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC Divisional Playoff matchup on Saturday.
The Eagles (14-3) beat the Giants (10-7-1) in both of their regular season matchups, and also have a healthy Jalen Hurts at quarterback as they try to advance to the NFC Championship.
Hurts should be able to find opportunities on the ground and in the air against New York, so we’ll be targeting him among our player props this Divisional Playoff weekend in my free NFL picks for Giants vs. Eagles below.
Giants vs Eagles prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Giants vs Eagles Divisional Round props
Putting the Hurts on
There’s no doubt about it: the Eagles are a different team when Jalen Hurts is at the helm. Philadelphia went 14-1 when Hurts was behind center this year, and 0-2 when he couldn’t make it on the field for his team.
Hurts can overwhelm opposing defenses, both through the air and on the ground. The Eagles quarterback threw for 22 touchdowns against six interceptions, making him one of the most efficient and effective throwing quarterbacks in the NFL.
But Hurts is also a dangerous runner. Over his 15 games, he was able to rush for 13 touchdowns, making him the highest-scoring running quarterback in the NFL. In fact, only one runner — Detroit Lions running back Jamaal Williams — ran for more touchdowns this year.
The Giants aren’t particularly good at stopping opposing runners. Opponents are averaging 144.2 yards per game on the ground against New York, one of the highest marks in the NFL. The Giants are also among the worst teams in the league against the run on a per-play basis, giving up 5.2 yards per carry.
When Hurts was completely healthy against the Giants back in December, he was highly successful on the ground and found the endzone once. He should be back in that form on Saturday, and that means he’s likely to find the endzone. New York may key on Hurts, but that won’t stop him from getting at least one score in this game.
Jalen Hurts prop: To score a touchdown (-103)
Why am I so confident Hurts will score in this game? It’s largely because I’m sure that a healthy Hurts will carry the ball plenty of times against a vulnerable Giants defense in such an important game.
Over the course of this season, Hurts has run for 760 yards, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Few teams have been able to completely contain the Eagles quarterback, and the Giants aren’t a team that has found much success stopping opposing runners.
If Hurts was the only threat on the ground for the Eagles, then the Giants might be able to scheme to contain him. However, Philadelphia also has an excellent running back in Miles Sanders, who ran for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns this year. Even when Sanders needs a spell, Kenneth Gainwell (240 yards, 4 touchdowns) has proven to be a capable second option.
That means that Hurts can slip in the occasional designed run while also sometimes choosing to run on broken pass plays. There’s little doubt that he’ll have those opportunities against the Giants, who haven’t been able to stop anyone from running against them this year.
Despite these factors, the totals on Hurts’ rushing yards are relatively modest. I expect him to break at least one long run during the game, and find regular opportunities to scramble for more yards from time to time. Add it all up, and he should easily hit the Over on his rushing total.
Jalen Hurts prop: Over 51.5 rushing yards (-112)
No Jones about it
Daniel Jones has been a revelation for the Giants this year. Even if you don’t agree with Saquon Barkley that Jones is “elite,” he’s certainly grown into the role of a solid NFL starting quarterback who, like Hurts, can beat opposing defenses on the ground and through the air.
That said, Jones isn’t the type of quarterback who puts up huge numbers. Instead, you need to watch him to understand how he takes control of games in key moments, finding his spots to do damage rather than just dominating teams play after play.
Jones threw for a solid 3,205 yards on the season, a number that comes out to an average of just 200.3 per game in the 16 contests in which he appeared for New York this season. In one game against Philadelphia, he threw for just 169 yards on 27 attempts in a 48-22 loss back in December.
The Eagles are more than capable of shutting down any quarterback, including Jones. Philadelphia allowed just 179.8 passing yards per game to opposing teams during the regular season, the single best mark in the NFL. The Eagles allowed the lowest yards per pass attempt in the league as well, with opposing quarterbacks gaining just 5.5 yards per pass this year.
I like Jones as a quarterback, but it’s hard to see him finding much success against the Eagles on Saturday. Despite his overall averages this year, and Philadelphia’s ability to shut down opposing passing attacks, sportsbooks have still been somewhat conservative in lowering Jones’ passing yardage props for this game.
I get that, considering that he threw for 301 yards against the Minnesota Vikings last weekend. But the Eagles are an entirely different challenge, and jumping from one of the weakest defenses in the NFL to the best passing defense in the league will be a rude awakening for Jones and the Giants.
Daniel Jones prop: Under 216.5 passing yards (-115)