Kenneth Walker was electric in his season debut for the Kansas City Chiefs, and now people are thinking the Chiefs are Super Bowl contenders once again. But it's a Walker market that has my attention in our NFL Week 2 Futures Fund.
The Seattle Seahawks should've paid Walker following his Super Bowl MVP-winning performance. That was definitely a mistake by their front office. Now, the Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes have an explosive weapon in their backfield that they haven't had in many years. We're not going to make the same mistake the Seahawks did here. We're buying some Walker stock.
Each week, our NFL Futures Fund will identify the teams and players worth buying, fading, holding, or targeting as long shots based on the latest NFL odds.
NFL Week 2 futures portfolio strategy
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, use our odds converter.
| Future | Market | Action |  Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
 Kenneth Walker |
1250+ Rushing Yards | Buy | 58% |
 Caleb Williams |
NFL MVP | Fade | 12% |
 Malik Nabers |
Comeback Player of the Year | Hold | 9% |
 Kaelon Black |
Offensive Rookie of the Year | Long Shot | 2% |
How the NFL Futures Fund works
Buy: A future we're adding at its current price
Fade: A team or player we believe is overpriced
Hold: An existing position where the original thesis remains intact
Long Shot: A high-upside future available at a big price
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Buy: Kenneth Walker to record 1,250+ rushing yards
- Kalshi probability: 58%
- Key metric: Projected win probability is 63%
- Next catalyst: Week 2 vs. Indianapolis Colts
This is a market I highlighted on X while Kenneth Walker was running wild against the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football, when it was trading at 43%.
The market has moved significantly and is now trading at 58%, but I still think there's room to make this buy after Walker finished with 173 rushing yards and I was able to update my projections using his actual Week 1 rushing total.
After rushing for 173 yards to open the season, Walker needs to average only 67.4 yards over his remaining 16 games to eclipse 1,250 rushing yards. That's not a particularly high bar considering the usage (23 carries) he received on Monday Night Football.
What really grabs my attention is that Walker could even miss some time due to injury and still have a realistic path to clearing the number because of the massive head start he created in Week 1.
On top of that, the Chiefs have a soft schedule over their next three games, facing the Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and Las Vegas Raiders.
If Walker continues to see this type of volume, that could put us in a position to sell this investment for a strong profit in the next couple of weeks and move on from it well before the season ends.
Fade: Caleb Williams to win NFL MVP
- Kalshi probability: 12%
- Key concern: Chicago Bears win total
- Next catalyst: Week 2 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Caleb Williams should absolutely be trading in the top six in this market, but he shouldn't be in the same probability range as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. His biggest obstacle is playing in the NFC North, where the Chicago Bears' win total sits at 9.5.
Team success matters for this award, and the Bears' path to the top seed in the NFC is made more difficult by divisional games against the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings.
There aren't many spots to catch your breath, put up easy numbers, and pick up a comfortable win. This week, for example, Williams faces Brian Flores and the Vikings defense.
Bears head coach Ben Johnson is an offensive genius, and the 59 points Chicago dropped on the Panthers created plenty of hype around Williams. But look at how he scored his two rushing touchdowns against Carolina. Both came on scramble-drill runs — plays completely improvised by Williams rather than designed goal-line calls similar to what Allen might see.
Hold: Malik Nabers to win Comeback Player of the Year
- Kalshi probability: 9%
- Key metric: Patrick Mahomes trading at 49%
- Next catalyst: Week 2 vs. Los Angeles Rams
We're in a really good spot with Malik Nabers in our pocket at 4% to win Comeback Player of the Year while he's currently trading at 9%. We could sell this position for a profit right now, but I think there's still more probability to capture in this market. Hopefully, head coach John Harbaugh tackles him again in warmups.
Look at where Nabers sits in the market: Patrick Mahomes is the favorite at 49%, followed by Nabers at 9% and Aaron Donald at 6%. Mahomes was one of two quarterbacks in Week 1 who didn't complete a pass of more than 10 yards downfield, while Donald didn't even make the trip to Australia with the Los Angeles Rams. Meanwhile, Nabers went for 69 yards on six receptions, and New York Giants QB Jaxson Dart looked solid in his first game under the new coaching staff.
Mahomes is too high for my liking, while Donald shouldn't even be receiving votes in this market. That probability equity has to go somewhere, and I believe Nabers will continue to absorb it as the season progresses.
Long shot: Kaelon Black to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
- Kalshi probability: 2%
- Upside metric: More carries than Christian McCaffrey in Week 1
- Next catalyst: Week 2 vs. Miami Dolphins
I find this one very interesting because I don't think anyone was anticipating Kaelon Black to have 14 carries compared to Christian McCaffrey's 10 carries in the San Francisco 49ers' Week 1 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. It was a crucial divisional matchup, so the fact that the 49ers trusted Black in that spot does speak volumes.
Do I expect Black to have more carries than McCaffrey every game from here on out? No. But what we could see here is the 49ers trying to save McCaffrey's legs for the second half of the season by giving Black more carries at the beginning of the year. At 2%, this creates a scenario where Black could continue to build on his 14 carries for 65 rushing yards, climb the board in this market, and put us in a position to sell his position in a couple of weeks.
Offensive Rookie of the Year also feels like a market where a long shot might win. De'Zhaun Stribling joins Jordyn Tyson among the favorites who are out with injuries; Jeremiyah Love didn't see the volume you'd expect with just 11 carries, Carnell Tate doesn't have a quarterback, and Fernando Mendoza isn't starting. There's room for someone to come out of nowhere in this market.
My NFL futures portfolio tracker
The Detroit Lions are still sitting at 4% to win the Super Bowl, and that's a position I feel comfortable continuing to hold as I price them higher than that number. Sure, the secondary leaves you wanting a lot more because of the injuries, but eventually Brian Branch will be back, and the Lions are in the rumor mill for Joey Porter Jr. of the Pittsburgh Steelers. That transaction alone would alter their probability.
Three of their next four games come against the New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, and Arizona Cardinals. At 4%, I'm definitely comfortable holding this position on the Lions for even longer.
The table below tracks when each future entered the portfolio and how its price has moved since it was added.
| Future | Week added | Position | Entry / Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker 1,250+ rushing yards |
Week 2 | Buy | 58% |
| Detroit Lions Super Bowl |
Week 1 | Buy | 4% |
| Malik Nabers NFL Comeback Player of the Year |
Week 1 | Hold | 4% |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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