The Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers will open their respective seasons this Sunday, Sept. 13 at Acrisure Stadium. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on FOX.
My early Falcons vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks call for a Steelers win in a low-scoring game.
Falcons vs Steelers predictions
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Early Falcons vs Steelers spread pick: Steelers -3.5
Tua Tagovailoa was named the Atlanta Falcons' Week 1 starting quarterback on Monday, but that decision appeared to be made reluctantly after Michael Penix Jr. told the team he wasn't ready to play.
Despite Penix not returning to 11-on-11 work until the final week of August, head coach Kevin Stefanski seemed to be holding out hope that he could start someone other than Tagovailoa, who struggled mightily during joint practice sessions and the preseason.
The Pittsburgh Steelers don't project to be an elite team in 2026, but they were 5-3 SU at home with Aaron Rodgers under center last season. Their losses came against the Seahawks, Packers, and Bills, three of the league's more dominant teams.
Rodgers & Co. should be able to take care of business in front of their home fans this Sunday.
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Early Falcons vs Steelers total pick: Under 42.5
It's difficult to see where points come from in this Week 1 matchup. The Falcons don't appear enthusiastic about starting Tagovailoa. Rodgers finished 22nd in EPA/play last season among 30 quarterbacks to log 320+ plays, which was only marginally better than Tagovailoa, who ranked 26th.
The strength of both teams is likely to be their defense. Atlanta's defensive front has plenty of big bodies and should be stout against the run. Pittsburgh's defense was a respectable 16th in EPA/play and 14th in success rate against the pass in 2025.
Neither Tagovailoa nor Rodgers are likely to take many shots deep downfield. That means that scoring drives will chew clock — and there might not be that many scoring drives regardless.
Don't expect a shootout between these veteran quarterbacks this Sunday.
Falcons vs Steelers odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Falcons vs Steelers spread: Steelers -3.5
- Falcons vs Steelers moneyline: Falcons 38%, Steelers 64%
- Falcons vs Steelers Over/Under: 42.5
How to watch Falcons vs Steelers
- Falcons vs Steelers matchup
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Pittsburgh, Penn.
- Venue: Acrisure Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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