The New England Patriots are the hottest team in the NFL and aim to add to a five-game winning streak when they host the Atlanta Falcons on November 2.
Atlanta is coming off a poor showing vs. Miami at home in Week 8, but to its defense, it didn’t have QB1 Michael Pennix Jr. or WR1 Drake London on the field.
My early Falcons vs. Patriots predictions and NFL picks expect a better showing from ATL in Week 9.
Want to make sure Covers shows up often in your Google search results and Discover feed?
Simply click here and add Covers as one of your "source preferences".
Falcons vs Patriots predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Early Falcons vs Patriots spread pick: Falcons +5.5
The Atlanta Falcons have their faults, yet I feel like this spread (which jumped from New England -4.5 to -5.5) could be discounting Atlanta too much for an ugly Week 8 outing.
The Falcons were left with backup Kirk Cousins under center this past Sunday and fell behind quickly, forcing the offense to abandon a dominant run game. That, and the thinning receiving corps, compounded the issues for the passing attack.
Getting Penix and London back could be a quick fix for the Falcons. We’ve seen Atlanta step up to its competition with wins over Buffalo, Washington, and Minnesota this season.
As for the New England Patriots, it’s tough to knock their current form. New England’s offense is humming, and Drake Maye is a sleeper MVP candidate with the Patriots putting up monster numbers during this streak.
However, outside of a win over Buffalo (which now looks less impressive), New England has built that momentum against some terrible teams, taking down the Browns, Titans, Saints, and Panthers during this stretch.
I’m leaning toward Atlanta and the points, but would want to get at least Falcons +6.
Early Falcons vs Patriots total pick: Under 45.5
Injury updates for Penix and London will greatly impact this number, as it currently sits in a bit of an Over/Under limbo between key numbers of 44 and 47. If you like the Under, you may want to wait and see if this climbs with updated statuses.
The Patriots’ defense hasn’t been tested too hard against that recent slate of foes, but it rates among the top groups in many advanced metrics. New England is notably strong against the run, ranked No. 6 in run defense DVOA at FTN. That throws a wrench in Atlanta’s biggest strength.
As for Atlanta’s stop unit, the Falcons aren’t the toughest defense in the land, but they don’t give up many chunk plays and force opponents to work for every yard.
The Falcons allow just 4.9 yards per play and have watched foes go for passing plays of 20+ yards only 11 times — fewest in the land.
Maye’s emergence has had a lot to do with his downfield passing prowess, entering Week 9 with the third most “home run” plays of 20+.
Atlanta’s zone-heavy schemes don’t allow much over the top, and Maye hasn’t had the same success vs. zone as he has against man coverage.
Falcons vs Patriots odds
- Falcons vs. Patriots spread: Patriots -5.5
- Falcons vs. Patriots moneyline: Falcons +205, Patriots -250
- Falcons vs. Patriots Over/Under: 45.5
How to watch Falcons vs Patriots
- Falcons vs. Patriots matchup
- Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Foxborough, MA
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
