The Las Vegas Raiders are coming off an impressive showing following the firing of their head coach and GM, defeating the New York Giants 30-6 with interim head coach Antonio Pierce. Now they get a prime-time matchup on Sunday Night Football back at home in Las Vegas, NV against the defensive-heavy New York Jets.
The Raiders are slight underdogs in the Week 10 NFL odds and will be looking to get their star receiver Davante Adams more involved against this stellar defense. I'm taking a closer look at the Davante Adams odds to give my free NFL picks for the Jets vs. Raiders on November 12.
Davante Adams SNF prop picks
- Under 47.5 rec yds
- Under 57.5 rec yds/Jacobs Over 67.5 rush yds/Jacobs Over 16.5 rush attempts/Jacobs anytime TD
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Davante Adams SNF prop pick
Under 57.5 rec yds (-110)
The New York Jets suffered an immediate downfall from their abundance of hope to start the season after losing Aaron Rodgers on the first drive of the season. Now there is some optimism that Rodgers may be near a return, but regardless there is plenty of optimism around this New York defense.
The Jets rank third in the NFL in passing yards allowed and passing touchdowns allowed. A big reason for this is their stellar secondary which includes Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. In games where both Reed and Gardner were available this season, the Jets have allowed 19.2 completions for 173.0 yards through the air per game.
Only Stefon Diggs and Ceedee Lamb back in the first two weeks of the season were able to surpass double-digit receptions or 100 yards receiving. It hasn't been the usual season for Davante Adams, who is averaging his fewest yards per game since 2017 and his fewest yards per reception since 2015.
Adams has a combined 18 catches on 35 targets for 176 yards over the past five games. That's an average of 3.6 receptions for 35.2 yards per game. The good news is that QB Aidan O’Connell has been looking for the Pro Bowler often in his playing time. Adamas has a combined 32 targets in the three games that O’Connell has seen significant action.
However, those targets don't necessarily result in catches for the big man. Adams has only 19 receptions and 166 yards on those 32 targets. Now it's going to be even tougher for O’Connell to connect with Adams against the likes of Reed and Gardner.
The Jets' fantastic pass defense but mediocre run defense will likely create a game script for coach Pierce to focus on getting Josh Jacobs the ball. I don't expect to see a ton of Adams in this game against this secondary and I like his Under on his receiving totals.
Prop: Adams Under 57.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Davante Adams SNF same-game parlay
Davante Adams Under 57 receiving yards
Josh Jacobs Over 67.5 rushing yards
Josh Jacobs Over 16.5 rush attempts
Josh Jacobs anytime touchdown
There are a few Josh Jacobs odds I want to take advantage of because I think this game script will heavily factor him on offense. The Jets rank dead last in rush attempts allowed and 30th in rushing yards allowed so Jacobs will get plenty of volume to get his Over on rushing yards.
His rushing attempt total is set at 16.5 and last week under Pierce, Jacobs ran 26 times. It was very clear Pierce wanted to get back to having a big-time run game and wanted to get last year’s rushing champion going. He will get another heavy workload here.
Finally, I'm adding a Jacobs anytime touchdown to finish this out. Jacobs had two TDs last week and three over the last two weeks. The Jets allowed two touchdowns last week to Ekeler, so I like the chances of Jacobs also getting one against them.
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