While there are hypothetical landing spots and speculative trade scenarios for Los Angeles Chargers franchise quarterback Justin Herbert, my NFL picks analysis doesn’t anticipate him being traded ahead of the NFL trade deadline Tuesday, November 10, at 4 p.m. ET.
After breaking down the Justin Herbert next team odds, there’s every reason to expect him to start the 2027 NFL season with the Chargers.
- Key Takeaways:
- Herbert being traded before the NFL trade deadline borders on impossible
- There have been no internal organizational discussions of trading Herbert
- The financial realities and Herbert's no-trade clause reinforce he'll remain with the Chargers
Justin Herbert next team odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds converter.
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Why are the Chargers trading Justin Herbert?
Even with the Los Angeles Chargers off to a disastrous 0-7 start, they're not trading franchise quarterback Justin Herbert ahead of the NFL trade deadline Tuesday, November 10 at 4 p.m. ET.
If Los Angeles dealt Herbert, the Chargers would be on the hook for a crippling $50.4 million dead cap penalty in 2027, and any team acquiring the QB would have to absorb cash hits of $36 million in 2027 and $52 million in 2028.
Of course, Herbert also possesses a full no-trade clause.
It's also important to note this Kalshi market has only completed $4,505 in trades, so the implied probabilities are highly volatile and don't add up to 100%.
Finally, if no trade takes place, this market formally resolves on April 30, 2027.
Justin Herbert next team odds analysis
Falcons | 'Yes' 81¢
In theory, the Atlanta Falcons bringing in Herbert to lead an offense featuring high-end playmakers Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts Sr. makes sense.
Unfortunately, the Falcons are already on the hook for $12.5 million of dead cap space in 2027 after cutting quarterback Kirk Cousins following the 2025 season, and the organization invested the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft on QB Michael Penix Jr.
Cardinals | 'Yes' 22¢
Herbert to the Arizona Cardinals isn’t a fit.
Having a starting QB on a rookie contract makes more sense for the Cards than emptying the cupboards for Herbert.
Plus, why would Herbert waive his no-trade clause to be dealt to an organization that hasn’t had a winning season since 2021?
Arizona also selected quarterback Carson Beck in the third round of the 2026 NFL Draft, and this year’s QB draft class is loaded, so there’s potential the Cards brass opt to double down at the position with their first-round pick this spring.
Vikings | 'Yes' 15¢
The Minnesota Vikings backed up the Brink’s truck for wide receiver Justin Jefferson with a historic four-year, $140 million contract extension that made him the highest-paid non-quarterback at the time of signing.
As a result, Minny would be financially pressed after absorbing Herbert's impending $36 million and $52 million cash obligations the next two seasons.
Additionally, the Vikings wouldn’t have the luxury of adding rookie-contract talent from the top of the draft after trading away the required picks to acquire Herbert.
Justin Herbert next team odds prediction
Chargers
Los Angeles isn't trading Herbert.
The Chargers went to the postseason the past two years, and Herbert is under contract through the 2029 campaign with the noted no-trade clause.
There have been no internal organizational leaks that the franchise quarterback is on the trade market, either, and it would be nonsensical for Los Angeles to absorb a $50.4 million dead cap penalty next year for trading Herbert.
Strategic considerations for traders
- Analysis: Herbert has a full no-trade clause
- Analysis: There are no leaks of Los Angeles considering trading their franchise QB
- Analysis: The Chargers aren't going to absorb a $50.4 million dead cap penalty in 2027
How to trade Justin Herbert on Kalshi
Trading NFL futures on prediction markets like Kalshi is a different analytical experience than traditional sportsbooks.
- Account setup: Fund your Kalshi account via bank transfer or wire so you have capital ready for breaking news
- Navigate: Go to Sports → Pro Football and locate the “Justin Herbert's Next Team” market
- Execute: Buy “Yes” shares on a team or buy “No” shares to fade the public narrative
- Monitor: Markets are fluid. You can sell your position at any time before Herbert signs
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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