Primetime comes to Sin City when the Dallas Cowboys visit the Las Vegas Raiders for a non-conference contest on Monday Night Football.
The Week 11 finale has one of the tallest totals on the board, which means plenty of pop for among the Cowboys vs. Raiders props on MNF.
Here are my best NFL picks for Monday, November 17.
Cowboys vs Raiders MNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Brock Bowers |
Over 6.5 Receptions | -115 |
 George Pickens |
Over 66.5 Receiving Yards | -110 |
| Javonte Williams |
Over 2.5 Receptions | +110 |
Brock Bowers Over 6.5 Receptions
Brock Bowers put in a quiet effort last Thursday. The Las Vegas Raiders’ star tight end drew just three targets for one catch versus the Denver Broncos — that one reception going for 31 yards, however.
It was a significant dip in involvement compared to the previous game, in which Bowers was targeted 13 times for 12 receptions and 127 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars in his return from injury.
Las Vegas offensive coordinator Chip Kelly spoke to the media ahead of this Monday night matchup, emphasizing the importance of Bowers and explaining why the TE didn’t see many passes his way on TNF.
“We have to get Brock Bowers involved, he’s obviously our No. 1 threat out there, and we got to continue to get him involved,” Kelly said. “We got sacked on a lot of the plays that were supposed to go to him in the Denver game.”
Bowers has been battling through a knee injury since Week 1, which hampered his effectiveness in the first half of the schedule and cost him all of October. But with a mini bye following the loss to Denver and an extra rest day for MNF, this is the healthiest Bowers has been in a long time.
The Raiders take on a poor pass defense from Dallas, which sits near the bottom of most defensive metrics. The Cowboys run a high rate of zone coverage, and Bowers is at his best finding seams in the zone and doing damage after the catch.
His Week 11 projections range from 5.5 to 6.6 catches, but considering his improved health, increased involvement, and defensive matchups, I see him putting in a busy night on Monday.
George Pickens Over 66.5 Receiving Yards
Many thought George Pickens’ performances would take a backseat when fellow WR CeeDee Lamb returned to action, but the Dallas Cowboys’ big offseason addition continues to catch a ton of passes.
Pickens has drawn nine targets in each of his last two games and has registered nine or more targets in six of his nine games overall this season. Those have added up to 68 yards or more in seven of those outings.
With a tall total for Monday Night Football, bookies are bracing for a surplus of offense from Dallas. The Cowboys take on a Vegas secondary running one of the highest rates of zone coverage in the NFL, and Pickens currently ranks No. 9 among all WRs versus zone at PFF.
The Raiders sit in the middle of the road in many pass defense measurements, but have been burned by opponents’ second options, ranking No. 25 in DVOA versus WR2 at FTN. Pickens is the best WR2 in the league, and his Week 11 projections are all north of his receiving yards total (most leaning toward 70 yards).
Javonte Williams Over 2.5 Receptions
Javonte Williams has been great in his first year for the Cowboys, picking up gains on the ground and through the air.
Williams has run the seventh most routes among all running backs, but saw his receiving role dwindle in the last two games due to Dallas falling behind quickly and being forced to pass downfield.
Williams, who was targeted three or more times in six of his first seven games, saw just three total targets in one-sided losses to Denver and Arizona. But with the Boys expected to lead in Vegas, Williams’ involvement in the passing game will peak again.
Player models for MNF range from 2.3 to 2.9 receptions for Williams, who knows this foe well from his days with Denver. In fact, Williams drew 25 total targets for 18 receptions in his last four games against Las Vegas defensive coordinator Patrick Graham.
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Cowboys vs Raiders MNF prop betting card
- Bowers Over 6.5 Receptions (-115)
- Pickens Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Williams Over 2.5 Receptions (+110)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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