This NFC East matchup definitely lacks postseason implications, and the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants both send out two of the worst defenses in the league for their season finale at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, January 4.
My early Cowboys vs. Giants predictions and NFL picks call for Dallas to keep the New York offense off balance just enough to cover the spread and keep this total Under the number in Week 18.
Cowboys vs Giants predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Cowboys vs Giants spread pick: Cowboys -5.5
If the New York Giants don’t steamroll the lowly Las Vegas Raiders in Week 17, I think we’re landing a longer number on the Dallas Cowboys.
The Giants are two weeks removed from a 16-13 loss where they totaled just 141 yards against the Minnesota Vikings, and I think the Dallas defense can mimic just enough of what Minny did to cover the number in Week 18.
New York quarterback Jaxson Dart only dropped back to pass 19 times, and he was pressured nine times. The rookie finished with just 33 passing yards for 2.5 yards per attempt and a 5.5 aDoT.
There are only two teams with a higher pressure percentage than the Vikings, and the Cowboys are one of them. There’s nothing special about the G-Men on defense, either.
New York is 27th in defensive DVOA while allowing the fifth-most yards and fifth-highest EPA per play, while the Dallas offense checks in with respective eighth-, fourth-, and fifth-ranked marks.
So, even with as bad as the Dallas defense is — and it’s a league-worst DVOA bad — I’m still expecting Dart and the New York offense to have just enough trouble keeping pace with the Cowboys in the season finale.
Early Cowboys vs Giants total pick: Under 52.5
Given the highlighted defensive struggles of these two teams, it’s no surprise to see both Dallas and New York consistently play to the Over through the first 17 weeks of the season.
The Cowboys are 11-4-1 to the Over, and the Giants are 10-6.
Still, this is the highest total of the year for New York, and it’s the highest number between these two teams ever, alongside their Week 5 meeting in the 2021 season, which traded at 51.5 and 52.5 depending on the shop.
Additionally, I think New York will want to try and establish the run as a means to both protect Dart against the Dallas pass rush and avoid the back-and-forth shootout this total implies.
Cowboys vs Giants odds
- Cowboys vs. Giants spread: Giants +5.5
- Cowboys vs. Giants moneyline: Cowboys -275, Giants +225
- Cowboys vs. Giants Over/Under: 52.5
How to watch Cowboys vs Giants
- Cowboys vs. Giants matchup
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: East Rutherford, NJ
- Venue: MetLife Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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